Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:59:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x77a8…423d other 93 markets active 1h ago coverage 478d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$37 (-0%) realized −$37 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate34%31W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$16
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$44
sports 31% $0
other 24% +$3
finance 1% −$1
politics 1% −$1
crypto 1% +$3
tech 0% $0
weather 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.8% -10.3% 14% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 34 -1.1% -10.6% 29% 3% -10.4%
≤90d 41 -1.0% -10.4% 27% 2% -10.0%
all 92 -1.5% -10.9% 34% 5% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 5% -9.9%
10% -19.4% 3% -18.5%
15% -27.2% 1% -26.4%
20% -34.3% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

478d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses31 / 61
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)92 / 93
History coverage478d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 61¢ 61¢ $117 $117 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $40 −$1 -4%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $151 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $116 +$3 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $116 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $66 −$3 -4%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $127 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $223 +$1 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $267 −$11 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $116 −$2 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $116 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $119 −$3 -2%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $118 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $414 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $263 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $128 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $56 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $2 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $128 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $416 −$4 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $129 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 02 $211 −$11 -5%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 01 $130 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $7 +$1 +8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $82 +$15 +18%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $18 −$2 -13%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 29 $116 +$3 +3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 26 $142 +$2 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $156 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $157 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $151 −$29 -19%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $139 −$1 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $15 −$3 -18%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $149 +$2 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $86 $0 -0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $362 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $937 −$1 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $1,030 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $1,030 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $936 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $1 $0 +4%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 17 $2 $0 -5%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 27 $20 −$1 -5%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jun 08 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Jun 07 $40 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Jun 06 $21 $0 +0%
Starmer out before July? Jun 06 $21 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Jun 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open? Jun 04 $1 $0 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 61¢ $117 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $38 16h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $40 18h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $34 22h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $34 23h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $118 31h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $118 34h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $6 38h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $6 40h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $67 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $52 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $116 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $116 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $116 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $29 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $72 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $24 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $74 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 23¢ $2 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $61 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $66 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $127 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $127 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $11 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $116 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $126 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $97 8d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $98 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $126 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $126 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.51 · official $116.51 (match) · 292 history records