Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:15:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x77ac…5750 sports 180 markets active 1h ago coverage 186d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,766 (+3%) realized +$2,766 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate43%78W / 102L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$446per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$379est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$979
7 days−$585
14 days−$571
30 days−$596
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$2,512
other 5% −$137
world 0% −$17
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -3.8% -13.0% 54% 15% -12.3%
≤30d 82 -5.9% -14.9% 44% 13% -11.4%
≤90d 97 -6.9% -15.7% 40% 11% -11.6%
all 180 -7.8% -16.6% 43% 19% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 19% -6.3%
10% -24.6% 11% -15.3%
15% -31.9% 7% -23.5%
20% -38.5% 4% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$502) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$120 vs −$69 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

186d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,766
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses78 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$379
Open positions0
Markets (closed)180 / 180
History coverage186d
Avg bet$446
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 180 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $499 +$186 +37%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $997 +$211 +21%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $496 +$16 +3%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $224 −$141 -63%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $499 −$215 -43%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $507 −$51 -10%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $505 −$53 -10%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $356 −$21 -6%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $502 −$24 -5%
Switzerland to score first vs. Canada? Jun 24 $502 −$156 -31%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $506 −$189 -37%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $667 −$123 -18%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $500 −$99 -20%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $502 −$105 -21%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $497 −$53 -11%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $496 −$284 -57%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $28 +$14 +50%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $496 −$111 -22%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $496 +$41 +8%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $496 +$20 +4%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $351 +$8 +2%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $496 +$37 +8%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $78 −$25 -32%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $498 +$121 +24%
Jordan to score first vs. Algeria? Jun 23 $496 +$13 +3%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $495 +$5 +1%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $495 +$4 +1%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $1,003 −$63 -6%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $496 +$26 +5%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1,002 −$50 -5%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $495 +$9 +2%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $496 +$26 +5%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $1,001 +$127 +13%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $496 +$28 +6%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $496 +$20 +4%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $215 −$27 -12%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $197 +$20 +10%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $500 +$272 +54%
Switzerland to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $283 +$2 +1%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 −$1 -5%
DR Congo to score first vs. Portugal? Jun 17 $10 −$3 -32%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 $0 -1%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 −$1 -17%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $622 −$388 -62%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1,004 −$275 -27%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $998 +$108 +11%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $581 +$248 +43%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,308 +$112 +9%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $507 +$76 +15%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $501 +$19 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $685 32m
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $723 32m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 98¢ $511 32m
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 68¢ $500 33m
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 72¢ $499 33m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 95¢ $496 33m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $83 1h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 1.5 SELL Over 44¢ $283 1h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 82¢ $486 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $224 1h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 83¢ $498 1h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $499 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 17¢ $456 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 28¢ $452 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $335 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 0.5 SELL Over 50¢ $478 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 18¢ $507 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 30¢ $505 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 0.5 BUY Over 51¢ $502 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $356 1h
Switzerland to score first vs. Canada? SELL Yes 37¢ $346 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland O/U 1.5 SELL Over 18¢ $317 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 31¢ $545 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland O/U 0.5 SELL Over 55¢ $401 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 44¢ $397 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 76¢ $445 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $502 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 27¢ $506 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 36¢ $331 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 84¢ $497 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1233 history records