Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:45:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
77 0x77ad…ba8a sports 349 markets active 1h ago coverage 278d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 278d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL −$12,478 (-8%) realized −$12,657 · open +$179
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate39%132W / 208L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$441per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Fees−$570est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$1,374now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days−$954
14 days+$1,892
30 days+$3,104
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$6,738
other 33% −$3,764
politics 6% −$876
crypto 1% +$315
culture 0% +$22
tech 0% −$259
world 0% −$120
economics 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +20.9% +9.4% 42% 35% -21.6%
≤30d 108 +78.6% +61.6% 41% 37% -1.2%
≤90d 150 +56.6% +41.7% 37% 33% -6.7%
all 340 +17.9% +6.7% 39% 31% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.7% 31% -18.4%
10% -3.6% 26% -26.2%
15% -12.9% 22% -33.4%
20% -21.4% 19% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -13% → late +49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$210 vs −$192 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

278d coverage
Net worth$1,374
Realized−$12,657
Unrealized+$179
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses132 / 208
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$570
Open positions8
Markets (closed)340 / 349
History coverage278d ⚠
Avg bet$441
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 340 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jaunā Vienotība (JV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election? No 69¢ 80¢ $845 $968 +$123 (+15%)
Will Progresīvie (PRO) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election? Yes 15¢ 23¢ $109 $166 +$56 (+51%)
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 80¢ $94 $94 −$1 (-1%)
Will Latvija Pirmajā Vietā (LPV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election? Yes 22¢ 26¢ $71 $85 +$14 (+19%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $49 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Will Apvienotais Saraksts (AS) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election? Yes 2¢ 13¢ $1 $8 +$7 (+488%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $5 −$15 (-75%)
Will Zaļo un Zemnieku Savienība (ZZS) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 87 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $2,408 +$497 +21%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $361 +$39 +11%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $966 +$167 +17%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $583 −$140 -24%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 −$3 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 18 $146 −$143 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -97%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $859 −$387 -45%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $515 +$36 +7%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $1,646 −$38 -2%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $81 −$79 -97%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $457 −$446 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $139 −$13 -9%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $67 −$65 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,008 +$41 +4%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $51 +$50 +97%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $1,004 −$775 -77%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $305 −$70 -23%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $72 +$54 +75%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 15 $136 −$132 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $69 +$31 +46%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $27 +$73 +276%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $113 +$87 +76%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,263 −$1,259 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $95 +$5 +5%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 14 $67 +$33 +50%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $124 +$111 +90%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $564 +$193 +34%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $17 −$17 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $48 −$47 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $85 −$84 -98%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $114 −$109 -96%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $41 +$30 +73%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2,083 +$1,655 +80%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $109 +$91 +83%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 14 $59 +$41 +70%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? Jun 14 $175 +$25 +14%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $26 −$24 -94%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 −$24 -97%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $381 −$374 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $94 −$92 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $228 −$12 -5%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $515 +$168 +33%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$10 +363%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1,663 +$1,060 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 0¢ $2 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 43¢ $120 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 41¢ $1 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 42¢ $125 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 51¢ $127 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 55¢ $123 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 54¢ $120 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 45¢ $2 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 46¢ $128 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 53¢ $159 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 45¢ $128 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 49¢ $117 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 37¢ $3 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 38¢ $118 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 38¢ $3 2h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 38¢ $125 2h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 55¢ $31 2h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 46¢ $131 2h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 53¢ $111 2h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 29¢ $1 2h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 21¢ $102 2h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 29¢ $7 2h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 30¢ $122 2h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 37¢ $122 2h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 58¢ $119 2h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 72¢ $125 2h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 14¢ $1 2h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 17¢ $36 2h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 27¢ $4 2h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 20¢ $139 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,374.46 · official $1,374.46 (match) · 3500 history records