Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:55:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x77b2…7d9c crypto 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$128 (-31%) realized −$128 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate24%11W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$48
7 days−$48
14 days−$48
30 days−$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% −$104
other 26% −$53
sports 6% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-50.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -71.2% -73.9% 12% 12% -82.1%
≤30d 8 -71.2% -73.9% 12% 12% -82.1%
≤90d 45 -44.9% -50.1% 24% 20% -55.6%
all 45 -44.9% -50.1% 24% 20% -55.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -50.1% 20% -55.6%
10% -54.9% 13% -59.9%
15% -59.3% 11% -63.8%
20% -63.3% 11% -67.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late -51% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$128
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses11 / 34
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage60d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$2 -44%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 23 $30 −$5 -16%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 23 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$4 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $5 −$1 -12%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $30 −$25 -86%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $5 +$1 +21%
Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $2 +$5 +229%
Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $4 +$7 +181%
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-03? May 02 $10 −$10 -98%
FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: Both Teams to Score May 02 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-04-30? May 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 30 $21 −$7 -34%
Detroit Tigers vs. Atlanta Braves Apr 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Cincinnati Reds Apr 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Apr 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Apr 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt vs. IK Start end in a draw? Apr 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on April 30? Apr 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 April 20-26? Apr 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 30? Apr 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 30? Apr 30 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 1? Apr 30 $5 −$2 -36%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $3 +$5 +174%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $6 +$6 +105%
Will Al Okhdood SC win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 30 $5 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Apr 30 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Apr 30 $11 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Apr 30 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Apr 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 April 20-26? Apr 25 $3 −$2 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Apr 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Apr 24 $14 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Apr 24 $9 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Apr 24 $17 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 24 $7 +$1 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $25 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 9h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 9h
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 23¢ $12 48d
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-02? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 52d
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 43¢ $20 52d
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-02? SELL Yes 67¢ $6 52d
Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-05-02? SELL Yes 91¢ $7 52d
Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-05-02? SELL Yes 64¢ $12 52d
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-05-02? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 52d
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-05-02? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 52d
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 20¢ $9 52d
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 52d
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 52d
Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 22¢ $4 52d
Will FC Augsburg win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 52d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 52d
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 52d
FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: Both Teams to Score BUY No 37¢ $15 52d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 112 history records