Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:43:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x77b5…45df other 205 markets active 8h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$26 (+4%) realized +$67 · open −$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate46%57W / 68L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day18.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$201now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$28
14 days+$67
30 days+$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% +$51
world 27% −$13
politics 14% −$24
tech 9% +$1
finance 5% +$8
sports 4% −$20
economics 3% −$3
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +95.0% +76.4% 86% 86% +69.9%
≤30d 125 -1.3% -10.7% 46% 31% -1.5%
≤90d 125 -1.3% -10.7% 46% 31% -1.5%
all 125 -1.3% -10.7% 46% 31% -1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 31% -1.5%
10% -19.3% 25% -10.9%
15% -27.1% 17% -19.5%
20% -34.2% 11% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$201
Realized+$67
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses57 / 68
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions80
Markets (closed)125 / 205
History coverage29d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day18.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 80 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? Yes 78¢ 79¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? Yes 34¢ 38¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+12%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? No 76¢ 100¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+32%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? No 81¢ 100¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+23%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 71¢ 64¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-9%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 63¢ 74¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+16%)
Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026? No 60¢ 68¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+14%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 57¢ 45¢ $8 $7 −$2 (-21%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 69¢ 72¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (LOW) in June? No 80¢ 92¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? No 81¢ 86¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 95¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 74¢ 68¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-8%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 72¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 20¢ 16¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-17%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $84 in June? No 76¢ 98¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+29%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 27¢ 56¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+111%)
Will Trump attend 3 or more World Cup matches? Yes 18¢ 12¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-31%)
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 46¢ 58¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+27%)
Altcoin market cap dip to $150B before 2027? No 35¢ 22¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-36%)
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 34¢ 28¢ $4 $4 −$1 (-16%)
Will Trump create a tariff dividend by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 27 $3 +$7 +250%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $6 +$1 +24%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jun 24 $4 $0 -1%
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Jun 24 $4 +$1 +24%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2 Jun 23 $4 +$1 +35%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $120 in June? Jun 22 $5 +$15 +288%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $6 +$3 +45%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $5 +$1 +27%
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? Jun 19 $6 +$3 +54%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 18 $8 −$1 -20%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June? Jun 18 $1 $0 -2%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +17%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $3 +$3 +96%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -48%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $13 −$1 -8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +44%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $1 $0 +3%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 17 $2 $0 -22%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +46%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +24%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $3 $0 +2%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 -6%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 +$3 +53%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $4 $0 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $18 +$1 +5%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1 $0 +44%
Will Silver (SI) settle at $60-$70 in June? Jun 15 $6 $0 +8%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 15 $5 +$23 +468%
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $5 $0 -4%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in June? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +18%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $6 +$14 +228%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -26%
Will Derrick Lewis win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +27%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +45%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $3 +$24 +881%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 7h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 56¢ $2 9h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY No 20¢ $1 3d
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? SELL No 80¢ $4 3d
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY No 20¢ $4 3d
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY No 20¢ $1 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 3d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY No 80¢ $4 3d
Altcoin market cap dip to $150B before 2027? BUY No 23¢ $1 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2 SELL No 36¢ $5 4d
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 4d
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 16¢ $1 4d
Will Trump create a tariff dividend by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $2 4d
Will Trump create a tariff dividend by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $2 4d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 4d
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 77¢ $4 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 4d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY Yes 0¢ $1 4d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Anthropic + OpenAI vs Meta - higher valuation on June 30? BUY Meta 2¢ $1 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2 BUY No 33¢ $2 6d
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 82¢ $2 6d
US military draft authorized in 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 6d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 6d
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $200.64 · official $200.49 (match) · 578 history records