Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:05:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x77b6…e9f5 crypto 1514 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 136d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$142 (-0%) realized −$142 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate67%1099W / 532L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day23.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 137d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,619
sports 0% +$5
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 411 -30.6% -37.2% 52% 34% -30.5%
≤30d 735 -17.5% -25.4% 60% 42% -25.7%
≤90d 1273 -10.7% -19.2% 65% 47% -21.4%
all 1631 -9.4% -18.1% 67% 47% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.1% 47% -19.8%
10% ← realistic here -25.9% 13% -27.5%
15% -33.1% 3% -34.5%
20% -39.6% 1% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$16 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$142
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses1099 / 532
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1631 / 1514
History coverage137d ⚠
Avg bet$24
Trades / day23.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1631 Trades
no open positions (189 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - January 28, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$48 -196%
XRP Up or Down - December 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 27, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 2, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -103%
XRP Up or Down - January 7, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 3, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 2, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$45 -6178%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 26, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 20, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $54 −$54 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 30, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 11, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $34 −$34 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 22, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 8, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 31, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$47 -180%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 1, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$35 -720%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 22, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$62 -362%
XRP Up or Down - December 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 28, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$54 -7223%
XRP Up or Down - December 28, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 8, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 24, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $167 −$167 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 23, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 2, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 2, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 30, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 22, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$7 -223%
Solana Up or Down - January 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$18 -207%
Solana Up or Down - January 27, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $125 −$125 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 3, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 19, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 19, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$10 -2942%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 29, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $144 −$144 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 30, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 27, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $43 −$43 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 23, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 6, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $17 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $41 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $38 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $30 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $35 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $51 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $4 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $44 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $178 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $176 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $161 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $165 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $132 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $129 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $106 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $151 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $25 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $96 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $14 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $151 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $43 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $93 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $20 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $30 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records