Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:26:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
77 0x77b9…ac1d sports 41 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$45 (+9%) realized +$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate51%21W / 20L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$39
14 days+$47
30 days+$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$34
other 29% +$11
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -3.2% -12.4% 46% 34% -2.2%
≤30d 41 +2.6% -7.1% 51% 41% -1.1%
≤90d 41 +2.6% -7.1% 51% 41% -1.1%
all 41 +2.6% -7.1% 51% 41% -1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 41% -1.1%
10% -16.0% 34% -10.6%
15% -24.1% 34% -19.2%
20% -31.6% 27% -27.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.17 per $1 lost it wins $2.17
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses21 / 20
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage9d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Jordan vs. Argentina: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $58 +$8 +13%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $2 −$2 -96%
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $80 +$3 +4%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $75 $0 +1%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $4 −$2 -42%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $37 +$18 +50%
Uruguay vs. Spain: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $6 −$5 -88%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 26 $50 +$1 +3%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 26 $3 −$2 -71%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $4 −$1 -14%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $4 +$4 +96%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $4 −$1 -20%
Paraguay vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $2 −$1 -37%
Japan vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $4 +$6 +158%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $4 −$4 -93%
Czechia vs. Mexico: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $6 $0 -4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $4 +$6 +152%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $4 −$1 -14%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $52 +$3 +6%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $3 −$2 -83%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$2 +11%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2 +$3 +129%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 $0 -7%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $7 +$3 +50%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $2 +$3 +165%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $9 +$2 +21%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -96%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $9 +$11 +118%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $6 −$5 -81%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -94%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $2 $0 -5%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3 +$2 +55%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $3 +$2 +63%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3 +$1 +50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2 +$2 +76%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3 +$2 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $6 +$4 +62%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Argentina: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $59 26m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 28m
Jordan vs. Argentina: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 84¢ $50 33m
Jordan vs. Argentina: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 37¢ $4 40m
Jordan vs. Argentina: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 52¢ $3 44m
Jordan vs. Argentina: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 45m
Jordan vs. Argentina: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $3 57m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 57m
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $71 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 83¢ $60 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 18¢ $7 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 21¢ $6 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $20 1h
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 36¢ $4 2h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $75 23h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 93¢ $70 23h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 23h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 24¢ $2 23h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 24h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $55 26h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $37 26h
Uruguay vs. Spain: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 6¢ $1 26h
Uruguay vs. Spain: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $6 27h
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 100¢ $51 31h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 97¢ $50 31h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 12¢ $1 32h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 32h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 52¢ $3 33h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 59¢ $4 33h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $3 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 95 history records