Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:35:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

77 0x77ba…9f0e crypto 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 236d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$137 (-42%) realized −$87 · open −$50

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip

Net edge-100%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$109per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$150now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 236d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-100.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	no closed markets
all	2	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
10%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
15%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
20%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI — too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

— vs −$60 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage

Net worth$150

Realized−$87

Unrealized−$50

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage236d

Avg bet$109

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$200	$150	−$50 (-25%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 30?	Oct 30	$20	−$20	-100%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k or $120k first?	Oct 29	$100	−$100	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	0¢	$0	41m
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$206	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 30?	BUY Up	8¢	$10	235d
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 30?	BUY Up	25¢	$10	235d
Will Bitcoin hit $100k or $120k first?	BUY 120k	55¢	$100	236d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $150.02 · official $150.02 (match) · 5 history records