Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:50:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x77bb…3117 crypto 69 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$9 (-12%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate28%19W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$8
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$9
world 14% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -15.7% -23.7% 24% 22% -24.2%
≤30d 68 -15.5% -23.6% 28% 26% -23.8%
≤90d 68 -15.5% -23.6% 28% 26% -23.8%
all 68 -15.5% -23.6% 28% 26% -23.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.6% 26% -23.8%
10% -30.9% 24% -31.1%
15% -37.6% 22% -37.8%
20% -43.7% 19% -43.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses19 / 49
Open positions1
Markets (closed)68 / 69
History coverage8d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Yes 81¢ 90¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -39%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 17 $1 −$1 -59%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 -44%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 -30%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -35%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 17 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 2h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 25¢ $0 4h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 60¢ $1 4h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 81¢ $0 4h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 4h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 4h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 44¢ $1 4h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 14¢ $0 4h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 78¢ $1 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 10h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 71¢ $0 15h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $0 17h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 79¢ $1 17h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 80¢ $0 17h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 46¢ $0 17h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 84¢ $0 17h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 87¢ $0 17h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 89¢ $0 17h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 95¢ $1 18h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 95¢ $1 18h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 21h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 21h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 22h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.93 · official $1.88 (match) · 141 history records