Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:39:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
77 0x77bc…b91b sports 122 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d only
✗ bot/MM pace (3436 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$17,867 (+27%) realized +$18,880 · open −$1,013
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +88% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +39% what you keep after slip
Net edge+39%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate48%28W / 30L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$548per market
Trades / day3436.0pace
Fees−$804est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$16,117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$11,222
other 1% +$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3436 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+70.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 +88.4% +70.5% 48% 38% +11.1%
≤30d 58 +88.4% +70.5% 48% 38% +11.1%
≤90d 58 +88.4% +70.5% 48% 38% +11.1%
all 58 +88.4% +70.5% 48% 38% +11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3436.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +70.5% 38% +11.1%
10% +54.1% 34% +0.5%
15% ← realistic here +39.2% 26% -9.3%
20% +25.6% 22% -18.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +88% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$932) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +176% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
28.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$609 vs −$168 · ×3.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.38 per $1 lost it wins $3.38
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$16,117
Realized+$18,880
Unrealized−$1,013
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses28 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$804
Open positions91
Markets (closed)58 / 122
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$548
Trades / day3436.0
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 91 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 68¢ 60¢ $2,599 $2,326 −$273 (-10%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Under 29¢ 40¢ $1,540 $2,098 +$557 (+36%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Under 59¢ 80¢ $1,368 $1,845 +$478 (+35%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Over 87¢ 100¢ $1,133 $1,305 +$172 (+15%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) DR Congo 59¢ 88¢ $870 $1,290 +$420 (+48%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Under 80¢ 94¢ $935 $1,102 +$168 (+18%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Under 93¢ 99¢ $715 $764 +$50 (+7%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) DR Congo 62¢ 97¢ $447 $705 +$258 (+58%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Under 51¢ 84¢ $302 $502 +$200 (+66%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Over 35¢ 20¢ $775 $452 −$323 (-42%)
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Curaçao 52¢ 52¢ $286 $285 −$1 (-0%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Under 25¢ 46¢ $148 $278 +$130 (+88%)
Llaneros FC vs. CA Bucaramanga: O/U 3.5 Under 79¢ 91¢ $227 $263 +$36 (+16%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Yes 43¢ 100¢ $102 $238 +$136 (+132%)
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Curaçao 30¢ 30¢ $194 $192 −$2 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 34¢ 12¢ $479 $178 −$302 (-63%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score No 52¢ 52¢ $167 $165 −$1 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Over 72¢ 54¢ $212 $158 −$54 (-25%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score No 51¢ 52¢ $139 $140 +$1 (+1%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Under 75¢ 76¢ $123 $124 +$1 (+0%)
Spread: Panama (-2.5) Ghana 97¢ 97¢ $114 $115 +$0 (+0%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Under 88¢ 88¢ $102 $103 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) Canada 98¢ 98¢ $101 $101 +$0 (+0%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Over 14¢ 6¢ $217 $87 −$129 (-60%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Under 28¢ 28¢ $83 $85 +$2 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $269 −$269 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $649 −$425 -65%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $79 +$21 +26%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $143 −$48 -34%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $165 +$67 +41%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $4,909 −$116 -2%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3,443 −$267 -8%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $932 +$32 +3%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $522 +$119 +23%
Spread: Jordan (-1.5) Jun 17 $194 +$52 +27%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $204 −$25 -12%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $64 −$22 -34%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $483 +$19 +4%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1,190 −$62 -5%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,004 +$897 +89%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $175 −$87 -50%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $59 +$12 +20%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $230 +$18 +8%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $688 +$532 +77%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $430 −$317 -74%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $4,807 +$225 +5%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1,131 −$291 -26%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $553 +$38 +7%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1,359 +$1 +0%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $361 +$111 +31%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $506 −$21 -4%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3,170 −$45 -1%
Spread: Algeria (-2.5) Jun 17 $43 +$78 +181%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $931 −$352 -38%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $551 −$59 -11%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 17 $78 +$135 +172%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $27 −$29 -109%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $20 −$23 -114%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $826 −$362 -44%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $2,442 −$399 -16%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $2,431 −$195 -8%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $5,592 −$313 -6%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2,235 −$415 -18%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $738 −$275 -37%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $234 −$36 -15%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $892 −$378 -42%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $386 −$60 -16%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $106 −$44 -42%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $23 +$10 +42%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $136 −$20 -15%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $239 +$80 +34%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $172 −$70 -41%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $788 +$136 +17%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $38 +$79 +209%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $21 0m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $32 0m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $51 0m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $17 0m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $11 0m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 11¢ $4 1m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 11¢ $5 1m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $32 1m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $26 1m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $17 1m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $3 1m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $9 1m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 13¢ $9 1m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $15 1m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $3 1m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $90 2m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 5¢ $3 2m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 5¢ $1 2m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $64 3m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Under 42¢ $2 3m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 84¢ $80 3m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 31¢ $3 3m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 31¢ $3 3m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $11 4m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 12¢ $10 5m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 38¢ $30 5m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 21¢ $4 5m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $11 5m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 38¢ $24 6m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 38¢ $1 6m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16,117.14 · official $16,102.70 (match) · 3500 history records