Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:23:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x77c0…262d politics 42 markets active 19h ago coverage 298d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate34%14W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 25% −$1
other 21% $0
world 19% $0
economics 13% $0
sports 9% $0
crypto 4% $0
culture 4% $0
tech 3% $0
weather 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 9 -1.2% -10.7% 33% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 12 -0.8% -10.2% 42% 0% -9.7%
all 41 -2.7% -11.9% 34% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 0% -9.8%
10% -20.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -28.0% 0% -26.3%
20% -35.1% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

298d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses14 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage298d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 49¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $30 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $12 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 03 $31 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $4 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $4 $0 -6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $15 −$1 -5%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $10 $0 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 20 $12 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $32 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 18 $32 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 13 $33 $0 -0%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Sep 13 $34 $0 -0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 13 $2 $0 -17%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 08 $24 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.10ºC in August 2025? Sep 02 $13 −$1 -5%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 02 $12 $0 -0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 02 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 02 $27 $0 +0%
Will Irfaan Ali win the 2025 Guyana presidential election? Sep 02 $1 $0 -35%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Sep 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Aug 28 $5 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 28 $37 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 28 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 27 $38 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 27 $7 $0 -6%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Aug 27 $37 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Aug 26 $37 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 26 $38 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 26 $35 $0 +0%
Will Nick Delehanty win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 26 $1 $0 -37%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August? Aug 26 $38 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 25 $38 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 25 $38 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 89¢ $30 18h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 89¢ $30 22h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $30 29h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $32 31h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 37h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $9 37h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 37h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $12 39h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $35 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $35 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 24d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 24d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 25d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $24 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $8 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $22 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $9 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 22¢ $16 26d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 26d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 21¢ $6 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 95¢ $11 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 95¢ $11 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 97¢ $12 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 97¢ $19 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 97¢ $31 28d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $6 29d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $4 29d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.48 · official $1.49 (match) · 134 history records