Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:34:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x77c1…c93d crypto 1318 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 17d only
✗ bot/MM pace (158 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,097 (-5%) realized −$1,087 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate60%787W / 519L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day158.1pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$549
7 days−$546
14 days−$780
30 days−$837
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$625
other 1% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (158 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 671 -1.0% -10.5% 57% 56% -13.4%
≤30d 1306 -0.7% -10.1% 60% 55% -12.8%
≤90d 1306 -0.7% -10.1% 60% 55% -12.8%
all 1306 -0.7% -10.1% 60% 55% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover158.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 55% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 50% -21.2%
15% -26.6% 45% -28.8%
20% -33.8% 39% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$15 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$1,087
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses787 / 519
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1306 / 1318
History coverage17d ⚠
Avg bet$16
Trades / day158.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1306 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Down 62¢ 38¢ $26 $16 −$10 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $24 −$71 -297%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $0 −$3 -638%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $0 −$2 -847%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$6 -116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$7 -143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $0 −$3 -3103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$8 -1336%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$10 -193%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$3 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$4 -137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $0 −$2 -4108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $0 −$1 -750%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $32 +$19 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $30 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $34 +$20 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $28 +$17 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$15 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $24 +$14 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$15 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $24 +$14 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $19 +$11 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$12 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $22 +$13 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $23 +$13 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 15 $24 +$15 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$26 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $24 +$14 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $23 +$13 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$12 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $23 +$14 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$12 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$11 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$11 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $27 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $30 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $32 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $0 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $34 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $34 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $4 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $6 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $20 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $4 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $28 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $9 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $24 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $4 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $22 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $24 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $27 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.09 · official $16.09 (match) · 3500 history records