Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:12:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x77c2…c378 crypto 123 markets active 2h ago coverage 373d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$88 (-1%) realized −$98 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate91%108W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$760now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$119
14 days+$119
30 days+$119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% −$91
tech 21% +$89
sports 11% +$37
other 6% −$80
politics 3% −$14
world 1% $0
finance 1% +$16
economics 1% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -1.9% -11.2% 81% 56% -0.7%
≤30d 16 -1.9% -11.2% 81% 56% -0.7%
≤90d 17 -7.7% -16.5% 76% 53% -2.2%
all 119 -3.0% -12.2% 91% 13% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 13% -11.1%
10% -20.6% 7% -19.6%
15% -28.3% 4% -27.4%
20% -35.3% 3% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$39 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

373d coverage
Net worth$760
Realized−$98
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses108 / 11
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)119 / 123
History coverage373d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $510 in June? No 96¢ 100¢ $600 $620 +$20 (+3%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? No 92¢ 85¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 85¢ 66¢ $44 $35 −$10 (-22%)
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 11¢ 26¢ $6 $13 +$8 (+132%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $38 +$19 +50%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $20 +$5 +24%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $12 −$12 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $20 +$4 +21%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $61 +$16 +27%
Andrés Gómez: 1+ shots Jun 18 $4 +$1 +13%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 13.5 Total Corners AND Uzbekistan vs. Colombi Jun 18 $10 +$5 +54%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $70 +$1 +1%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $70 +$4 +6%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $60 +$10 +16%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $59 +$2 +3%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $60 +$12 +20%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 14 $700 +$69 +10%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 21 $19 −$19 -97%
Solana Up or Down - December 8, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Dec 08 $83 −$83 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Dec 08 $78 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Dec 08 $80 +$2 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 8, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Dec 08 $76 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Dec 08 $76 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Dec 08 $74 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - December 8, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Dec 08 $75 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Dec 08 $73 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - December 8, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Dec 08 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - December 8, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Dec 08 $70 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Dec 08 $71 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 8, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Dec 08 $65 +$4 +7%
XRP Up or Down - December 8, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Dec 08 $130 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Dec 08 $64 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 8, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Dec 08 $62 +$2 +3%
Solana Up or Down - December 8, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Dec 08 $37 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 8, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Dec 08 $61 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - December 7, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Dec 08 $51 +$3 +5%
Solana Up or Down - December 8, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Dec 08 $3 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 7, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Dec 08 $59 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 8, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Dec 08 $60 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - December 7, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Dec 08 $53 +$6 +11%
Solana Up or Down - December 7, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Dec 07 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix? Dec 07 $49 +$1 +3%
Solana Up or Down - December 7, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Dec 07 $48 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Dec 07 $48 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Dec 07 $35 +$1 +3%
Solana Up or Down - December 7, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Dec 07 $46 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 6, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Dec 07 $44 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Dec 07 $45 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 6, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Dec 07 $44 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Dec 06 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 6, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Dec 06 $43 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $44 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 80¢ $20 7h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 80¢ $10 12h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $12 12h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $38 12h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 82¢ $20 2d
Andrés Gómez: 1+ shots BUY No 88¢ $4 2d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 78¢ $61 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 13.5 Total Corners AND Uzbekistan vs. Colombi BUY 64¢ $10 3d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 99¢ $70 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 94¢ $70 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Under 86¢ $60 5d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 97¢ $59 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 6d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? BUY No 92¢ $100 6d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Under 83¢ $60 6d
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $510 in June? BUY No 97¢ $601 6d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 96¢ $769 6d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 87¢ $700 31d
Suns vs. Thunder BUY Suns 8¢ $19 60d
Solana Up or Down - December 8, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $83 194d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $80 194d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $78 194d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $76 194d
Ethereum Up or Down - December 8, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $76 194d
Ethereum Up or Down - December 8, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $67 194d
Ethereum Up or Down - December 8, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 194d
XRP Up or Down - December 8, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $75 194d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $759.82 · official $759.82 (match) · 283 history records