Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:36:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x77c3…c015 other 100 markets active 1d ago coverage 336d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate24%24W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days+$4
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 29% +$8
other 27% −$2
politics 18% $0
sports 14% +$1
crypto 5% −$5
economics 4% $0
tech 2% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.0% -10.4% 17% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 25 -0.0% -9.5% 32% 4% -9.0%
≤90d 76 -0.8% -10.2% 26% 1% -9.3%
all 99 -0.7% -10.2% 24% 1% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 1% -9.5%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

336d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses24 / 75
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)99 / 100
History coverage336d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $93 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $53 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $46 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $21 −$2 -7%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $52 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $195 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $34 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $48 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $2 $0 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $166 +$5 +3%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $21 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 31 $35 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 30 $46 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $96 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $94 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $134 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $55 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $55 +$7 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $43 +$2 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $42 $0 +0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $43 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $46 −$4 -8%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $46 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $9 $0 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? May 19 $19 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $3 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $35 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 30 $48 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $106 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $37 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $70 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $35 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $104 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $38 $0 -1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $68 +$1 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $86 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $175 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $34 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 19 $115 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $40 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 17 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $36 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $35 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 16 $39 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $70 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $33 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $38 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $42 34h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $4 34h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $46 37h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $18 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $28 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $46 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $46 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $46 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 26¢ $20 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 28¢ $21 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $52 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 95¢ $52 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $52 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $52 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $47 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $20 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $27 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $52 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $52 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 32¢ $34 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $26 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $8 9d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $6 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $42 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $48 10d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 10d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.23 · official $0.00 (match) · 370 history records