Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:34:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

77 0x77c4…5447 other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL −$10 (-23%) realized −$10 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip

Net edge-41%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$11per market

Trades / day9.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-36.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	-29.3%	-36.0%	0%	0%	-36.7%
≤30d	4	-29.3%	-36.0%	0%	0%	-36.7%
≤90d	4	-29.3%	-36.0%	0%	0%	-36.7%
all	4	-29.3%	-36.0%	0%	0%	-36.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover9.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-36.0%	0%	-36.7%
10%	-42.2%	0%	-42.8%
15%	-47.7%	0%	-48.3%
20%	-52.9%	0%	-53.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -30% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -29% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$2 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$10

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 4

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions0

Markets (closed)4 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$11

Trades / day9.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 4 Trades

no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$9	$0	-4%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw?	Jun 16	$13	$0	-1%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$19	−$9	-50%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$1	$0	-13%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	65¢	$9	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	66¢	$9	4h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw?	SELL No	92¢	$13	4h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw?	BUY No	92¢	$13	4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	66¢	$9	15h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	66¢	$10	15h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	66¢	$9	15h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	11¢	$1	16h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	12¢	$1	16h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 9 history records