Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:33:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x77c5…f6a1 crypto 1440 markets active 5d ago coverage 117d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 116d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$329 (-3%) realized −$329 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate53%806W / 719L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day22.3pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$375
7 days−$393
14 days−$393
30 days−$393
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$449
other 14% +$35
sports 3% −$26
finance 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 92 -94.2% -94.8% 2% 2% -87.3%
≤30d 92 -94.2% -94.8% 2% 2% -87.3%
≤90d 755 -18.1% -25.9% 47% 37% -18.4%
all 1525 -11.5% -20.0% 53% 38% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.0% 38% -16.7%
10% ← realistic here -27.6% 29% -24.7%
15% -34.6% 24% -32.0%
20% -41.0% 19% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$329
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses806 / 719
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1525 / 1440
History coverage117d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day22.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1525 Trades
no open positions (490 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 5PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 United States Grand Prix? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri win the Qatar Grand Prix? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 10, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 13, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 3PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 9, 3PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 7PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$2 -215%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 6, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $0 −$1 -510%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 18 $0 −$1 -870%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 11, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 13, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $0 −$1 -643%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 5d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $2 5d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 5d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $3 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 9¢ $2 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $17 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $2 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 51d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records