Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:11:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
77 0x77c6…85b9 sports 102 markets active 2h ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$5,699 (+13%) realized +$5,691 · open +$8
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%42W / 58L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$427per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$119est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$808now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$786
7 days−$786
14 days−$556
30 days+$817
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$5,680
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -61.9% -65.5% 17% 17% -80.0%
≤30d 25 -18.2% -26.0% 44% 44% +7.5%
≤90d 74 -48.8% -53.7% 26% 24% -40.0%
all 100 -18.6% -26.3% 42% 41% +2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.3% 41% +2.5%
10% -33.4% 40% -7.3%
15% -39.8% 38% -16.3%
20% -45.7% 35% -24.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$473 vs −$244 · ×1.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$808
Realized+$5,691
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses42 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$119
Open positions2
Markets (closed)100 / 102
History coverage230d
Avg bet$427
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Under 54¢ 56¢ $400 $418 +$18 (+5%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ 54¢ $400 $389 −$11 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $102 +$111 +109%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 26 $365 −$360 -98%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $51 −$41 -80%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $148 −$145 -98%
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $254 −$251 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $296 +$230 +78%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $41 +$30 +73%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $495 +$157 +32%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $562 +$518 +92%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $101 +$87 +86%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $103 +$175 +171%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $324 +$227 +70%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $280 +$166 +59%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 04 $92 −$90 -97%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $225 −$221 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 Jun 04 $14 −$14 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 211.5 Jun 04 $27 −$26 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 204.5 Jun 04 $24 −$24 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 205.5 Jun 04 $49 −$48 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 208.5 Jun 04 $17 −$17 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 207.5 Jun 04 $21 −$20 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 206.5 Jun 04 $23 −$22 -98%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $356 +$212 +60%
Dota 2: OG vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $298 +$285 +96%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Aurora (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 22 $696 +$987 +142%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 21 $302 −$302 -100%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - DreamLeague Group B May 18 $222 +$182 +82%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 13 $353 +$191 +54%
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5 May 08 $88 +$112 +127%
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 209.5 May 08 $93 +$107 +114%
Game Handicap: Tundra (-1.5) vs Team Yandex (+1.5) Mar 30 $587 +$780 +133%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Yandex (BO5) - ESL One Birmingham Playo Mar 30 $2,417 +$1,717 +71%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs TYLOO (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A Mar 29 $500 −$499 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs G2 Esports (+1.5) Mar 29 $1,991 −$1,987 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Group B Mar 29 $143 −$141 -99%
Game Handicap: JDG (-2.5) vs LYON (+2.5) Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Magic vs. Spurs: O/U 225.5 Mar 29 $14 −$14 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG Academy vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner Mar 29 $25 −$25 -100%
Game Handicap: TY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) Mar 29 $19 −$19 -100%
Magic vs. Spurs: O/U 224.5 Mar 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs JD Gaming (+2.5) Mar 29 $27 −$27 -100%
Magic vs. Spurs: O/U 223.5 Mar 29 $40 −$40 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG Academy vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - IEM Rio: Global Cl Mar 29 $318 −$40 -13%
Nuggets vs. Lakers Mar 29 $100 −$98 -98%
Magic vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5 Mar 29 $80 −$80 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX - Game 3 Winner Mar 29 $148 −$148 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stag Mar 29 $70 −$70 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $406 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $405 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $213 2h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 47¢ $102 2h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Norway 49¢ $102 2h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Norway 48¢ $102 2h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Norway 45¢ $10 3h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? SELL Yes $10 3h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 18¢ $46 3h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 41¢ $102 3h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Norway 35¢ $51 3h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Norway 33¢ $1 3h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Norway 54¢ $152 3h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 4h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 33¢ $102 4h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Norway 53¢ $203 4h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 50¢ $6 8d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 50¢ $25 8d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 50¢ $1 8d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 50¢ $1 8d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 50¢ $22 8d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 61¢ $23 8d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 61¢ $91 8d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 61¢ $26 8d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 54¢ $101 8d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $0 18d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL 9z 73¢ $326 18d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $70 18d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL 9z 73¢ $326 18d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 57¢ $10 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $807.54 · official $807.61 (match) · 370 history records