Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:55:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

77
0x77c8…bc8c
sports · 287 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$144,267 -85%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$152,002 · open +$2,761
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$24,367
Realized−$152,002
Unrealized+$2,761
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses53 / 457
Whale WR (big bets)13%
Est. fees paid−$2,056
Open positions42
Markets (closed)510 / 287
History coverage22d
Avg bet$592
Trades / day157.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 42 History 510 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$147,730
7 days−$151,043
14 days−$145,412
30 days−$152,002
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 29¢ 75¢ $1,509 $3,867 +$2,357 (+156%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 14¢ 84¢ $464 $2,833 +$2,369 (+511%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 42¢ 90¢ $1,315 $2,806 +$1,491 (+113%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $1,980 $1,785 −$195 (-10%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 31¢ 77¢ $700 $1,713 +$1,013 (+145%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1,630 $1,581 −$49 (-3%)
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? No 11¢ 19¢ $570 $945 +$375 (+66%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $855 $853 −$2 (-0%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? No 11¢ 18¢ $454 $783 +$329 (+72%)
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31? No 48¢ 78¢ $460 $747 +$287 (+62%)
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026? No 18¢ 82¢ $163 $734 +$571 (+350%)
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? No 17¢ 28¢ $436 $730 +$295 (+68%)
Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? No 46¢ 80¢ $410 $719 +$309 (+75%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 33¢ 67¢ $330 $670 +$340 (+103%)
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? Yes 22¢ 18¢ $660 $525 −$135 (-20%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Yes 41¢ 8¢ $2,059 $429 −$1,631 (-79%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 17¢ 9¢ $750 $384 −$366 (-49%)
Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026? No 47¢ 68¢ $250 $364 +$114 (+46%)
Will Eisenkot join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by June 30? Yes 13¢ 6¢ $650 $325 −$325 (-50%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Yes 12¢ 18¢ $149 $225 +$76 (+51%)
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027? No 18¢ 12¢ $304 $192 −$112 (-37%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 26¢ 10¢ $520 $190 −$330 (-63%)
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? No 24¢ 62¢ $69 $178 +$110 (+159%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? No 24¢ 26¢ $165 $175 +$10 (+6%)
Will Michael Olise score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 20¢ 16¢ $200 $165 −$35 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? Jun 12 $0 +$2,577 +1678787%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Exact Score: Brighton & Hove Albion FC 0 - 0 Wolverhampton Wanderers F Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
1. FC Köln vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $547 −$547 -100%
Exact Score: Paris FC 0 - 0 Paris Saint-Germain FC? Jun 12 $114 −$114 -100%
Leeds United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $886 −$886 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 12 $466 −$466 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 12 $260 −$260 -100%
AC Milan vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $290 −$290 -100%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 680-699 tweets in May 2026? Jun 12 $68 −$68 -100%
Çaykur Rizespor vs. Beşiktaş JK: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $450 −$450 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? Jun 12 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 12 $1,003 −$943 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? Jun 12 $0 −$103 -98442%
Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Liaoning Tieren FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $942 −$942 -100%
RB Leipzig vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $215 −$215 -100%
Exact Score: Manchester City FC 0 - 0 Crystal Palace FC? Jun 12 $368 −$368 -100%
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $694 −$694 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 12 $643 −$380 -59%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. RC Celta de Vigo end in a draw? Jun 12 $400 −$400 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Jun 12 $177 −$177 -100%
Real Racing Club vs. Real Valladolid CF: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $170 −$170 -100%
Academia Puerto Cabello vs. CA Juventud: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump and Xi not shake hands during the day of their next meeting Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Olympique de Marseille vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $370 −$370 -100%
Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Jun 12 $49 −$49 -100%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
CD Castellón vs. Cádiz CF: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1,700 −$1,700 -100%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
AD Ceuta FC vs. Málaga CF: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $540 −$540 -100%
CD Castellón vs. Cádiz CF: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $646 −$646 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $171 −$171 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1,214 −$1,214 -100%
Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Clavicular pregnancy in 2026? Jun 12 $516 −$516 -100%
Exact Score: Al Ittihad Saudi Club 0 - 0 Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club? Jun 12 $211 −$211 -100%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $750 −$750 -100%
Randers FC vs. Odense BK: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 12 $1,289 −$1,289 -100%
Çaykur Rizespor vs. Beşiktaş JK: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1,527 −$1,527 -100%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from May 8 to May 15 Jun 12 $323 −$323 -100%
RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $500 −$500 -100%
Zhejiang Zhiye FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? Jun 12 $307 −$307 -100%
1. FC Nürnberg vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1,301 −$1,301 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 48% −$5,775
other 36% −$7,602
world 7% −$25
crypto 7% +$10,900
politics 2% +$55
tech 0% −$579
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $330 14m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $33 40m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 41m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 41m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 41m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 42m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 42m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 42m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 42m
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $7 42m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $47 43m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $18 43m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 43m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $18 43m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 43m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $13 43m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $18 43m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 43m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $18 43m
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $398 1h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 1¢ $1 1h
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $16 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 7¢ $245 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 26¢ $445 4h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 4h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 26¢ $7 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-58.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 338 -83.7% -85.2% 3% 3% -92.2%
≤30d 510 -54.4% -58.8% 10% 10% -62.4%
≤90d 510 -54.4% -58.8% 10% 10% -62.4%
all 510 -54.4% -58.8% 10% 10% -62.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover157.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -58.8% 10% -62.4%
10% -62.7% 10% -66.0%
15% ← realistic here -66.3% 9% -69.3%
20% -69.6% 8% -72.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24,366.90 · official $24,415.68 (match) · 3500 history records