Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:08:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x77c9…e0ac finance 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
BOTnot copyable finance specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (114 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$40 (-0%) realized −$35 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate54%7W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$868per market
Trades / day114.3pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$175now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days−$40
14 days−$40
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 99% −$39
economics 1% −$5
other 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (114 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.4% -9.9% 50% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 13 -0.4% -9.9% 54% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 13 -0.4% -9.9% 54% 0% -9.7%
all 13 -0.4% -9.9% 54% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover114.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.4%
15% ← realistic here -26.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
116.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$17 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$175
Realized−$35
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses7 / 6
Open positions9
Markets (closed)13 / 22
History coverage22d
Avg bet$868
Trades / day114.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 33¢ 28¢ $40 $34 −$6 (-15%)
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026? No 86¢ 85¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? No 86¢ 86¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+1%)
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 94¢ 93¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-0%)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? No 79¢ 80¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026? No 64¢ 65¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+2%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 30¢ 31¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,600 (HIGH) in December? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December? Jun 16 $40 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 16 $1,811 +$10 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? Jun 16 $371 −$12 -3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 16 $1,740 +$18 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? Jun 16 $966 −$2 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 16 $1,279 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Jun 16 $943 −$30 -3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 16 $3,458 +$21 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Jun 16 $275 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 16 $2,026 +$14 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 15 $2,802 −$35 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 13 $3,076 −$24 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 01 $134 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 39m
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026? BUY No 64¢ $13 3h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 3h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $14 3h
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026? BUY No 85¢ $17 3h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $6 4h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 4h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 4h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $19 4h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 5h
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $16 5h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? BUY No 86¢ $4 5h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? BUY No 86¢ $17 5h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 5h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 6h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 6h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 6h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $0 6h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes $0 7h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes $1 7h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $7 7h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $7 7h
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 8h
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 8h
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 8h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December? BUY No 79¢ $32 10h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 30¢ $6 11h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $7 11h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 11h
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $174.53 · official $174.55 (match) · 3246 history records