Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:47:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x77ce…e7b7 crypto 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$187 (-17%) realized −$187 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate32%20W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$107
7 days+$95
14 days+$95
30 days−$152
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$178
other 6% +$17
sports 2% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-46.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -14.4% -22.6% 41% 23% +10.4%
≤30d 62 -40.6% -46.2% 32% 26% -23.9%
≤90d 62 -40.6% -46.2% 32% 26% -23.9%
all 62 -40.6% -46.2% 32% 26% -23.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.2% 26% -23.9%
10% -51.4% 24% -31.2%
15% -56.1% 19% -37.8%
20% -60.4% 13% -43.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -52% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$10 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$187
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses20 / 42
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)62 / 62
History coverage29d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 62 Trades
no open positions (34 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 28 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 28 $208 −$24 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 28 $42 +$99 +236%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 28 $24 +$40 +168%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $20 +$11 +56%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $10 $0 -4%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 +$26 +251%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 27 $5 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 27 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 21 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 21 $16 −$3 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 05 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 05 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 04 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 04 $41 −$13 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 04 $21 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 04 $10 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 04 $21 −$9 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 04 $12 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 04 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 04 $20 −$7 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 04 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 04 $72 +$20 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 04 $72 −$8 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 04 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 04 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 04 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 04 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 03 $14 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 03 $32 +$14 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 03 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 03 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 03 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 03 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 03 $10 −$10 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $130 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $97 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $64 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $24 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 96¢ $11 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 90¢ $10 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 2h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 53¢ $18 2h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 63¢ $21 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 3h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $14 3h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 4h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 24¢ $10 5h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 6h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 7h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 87¢ $0 7h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 83¢ $36 7h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 144 history records