Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:22:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
77 0x77cf…b0e0 crypto 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 251d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$359 (+1%) realized +$360 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate96%48W / 2L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$511per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$1,181now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 39% +$167
finance 19% +$36
other 11% +$13
economics 11% +$11
tech 10% +$12
world 7% +$22
politics 2% +$2
sports 1% +$92
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 7 +1.0% -8.7% 100% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 14 +0.7% -8.9% 93% 0% -9.0%
all 50 +1.6% -8.1% 96% 4% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 4% -8.2%
10% -16.9% 4% -17.0%
15% -24.9% 0% -25.0%
20% -32.3% 0% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$593) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$0 · ×83.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4028.0 per $1 lost it wins $4028.0
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

251d coverage
Net worth$1,181
Realized+$360
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses48 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage251d
Avg bet$511
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,182 $1,181 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 27 $1,977 +$9 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $373 +$2 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $792 +$7 +1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 08 $253 +$1 +0%
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $118 +$2 +2%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $90 +$1 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? May 30 $933 +$18 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? May 25 $108 +$2 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 15 $930 +$8 +1%
Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026? May 02 $113 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 02 $1,019 +$2 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 26 $1,017 +$2 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 18 $1,015 +$2 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 18 $2,548 +$10 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31? Mar 31 $257 +$1 +0%
Will Arc launch a token by March 31 2026? Mar 30 $197 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs BetBoom Team (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Gro Mar 29 $25 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 25 $566 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 March 16-22? Mar 24 $590 +$1 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of March? Mar 21 $89 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by March 20? Mar 20 $495 +$5 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by March 13? Mar 13 $88 +$2 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Mar 12 $88 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on March 6? Mar 07 $611 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 5? Mar 04 $610 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,300 on March 3? Mar 04 $610 +$1 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in February? Mar 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.40 in February? Mar 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.20 in February? Mar 03 $15 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Mar 01 $573 +$2 +0%
Will NVIDIA dip to $108 in February? Mar 01 $208 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA dip to $144 in February? Mar 01 $363 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? Feb 26 $569 +$2 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in February? Feb 22 $566 +$3 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? Feb 12 $1,161 +$33 +3%
Will XRP dip to $1.10 February 2-8? Feb 08 $261 +$1 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.90 February 2-8? Feb 08 $593 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 February 2-8? Feb 08 $556 +$1 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jan 01 $546 +$19 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 13 $437 +$108 +25%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 November 10-16? Nov 14 $435 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on November 11? Nov 11 $434 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $93k November 3-9? Nov 10 $434 $0 +0%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $342 +$92 +27%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on November 7? Nov 06 $340 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $114,000 on November 7? Nov 05 $175 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $3.10 on November 3? Nov 05 $339 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October? Oct 31 $337 +$2 +1%
Meteora FDV above $1B one day after launch? Oct 24 $333 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on October 22? Oct 22 $331 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $1,182 2h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $1,182 33h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $1,178 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $804 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $206 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $169 4d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $798 12d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? SELL Yes 100¢ $798 16d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $373 20d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $253 21d
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $120 21d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $253 26d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 99¢ $792 28d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $719 29d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $212 29d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $20 29d
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $118 30d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? SELL No 100¢ $110 34d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? SELL No 99¢ $11 44d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $933 44d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? SELL No 99¢ $927 44d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? BUY No 98¢ $108 54d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? BUY No 99¢ $90 57d
Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026? SELL No 94¢ $113 57d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 98¢ $930 57d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 100¢ $1,019 63d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? SELL No 100¢ $1,019 64d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $1,017 66d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 92¢ $97 71d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 92¢ $3 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,181.23 · official $1,181.23 (match) · 177 history records