Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:13:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
77 0x77d0…0200 other 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 19d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$297 (-2%) realized −$225 · open −$72
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%14W / 23L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$378per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$898now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 19d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% −$2,644
crypto 2% −$135
sports 0% +$379
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -20.3% -27.9% 47% 47% -26.0%
≤30d 37 +35.3% +22.4% 38% 38% -25.3%
≤90d 37 +35.3% +22.4% 38% 38% -25.3%
all 37 +35.3% +22.4% 38% 38% -25.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +22.4% 38% -25.3%
10% +10.7% 32% -32.5%
15% -0.0% 30% -39.0%
20% -9.8% 24% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$634) neutral
Persistence
early +96% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$301 vs −$284 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$898
Realized−$225
Unrealized−$72
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses14 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage19d
Avg bet$378
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 68¢ $970 $898 −$72 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $845 −$800 -95%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $989 −$640 -65%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $631 +$386 +61%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 27 $117 −$117 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 27 $771 −$771 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 27 $1,014 −$1,014 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $747 +$477 +64%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $538 −$538 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $580 +$439 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $880 +$240 +27%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $412 +$478 +116%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1,053 −$1,053 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $294 +$118 +40%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1,045 +$160 +15%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $634 +$761 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $117 −$117 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $420 −$420 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $912 +$150 +16%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 20 $160 −$160 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 20 $213 −$213 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $138 +$362 +262%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $75 −$29 -38%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $263 −$263 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $106 −$106 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $53 +$114 +214%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 14 $21 +$379 +1772%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$138 +688%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $21 +$8 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $1,016 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 46¢ $845 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 23¢ $349 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $989 23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 59¢ $631 30h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $747 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 11¢ $117 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $771 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $336 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 64¢ $678 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 53¢ $538 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 54¢ $580 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $10 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $880 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $891 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $412 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $294 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $1,053 6d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $32 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $1,045 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $634 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $441 7d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $117 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 66¢ $420 8d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 64¢ $425 8d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $471 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $30 8d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 26¢ $138 8d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $50 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $897.91 · official $897.91 (match) · 81 history records