Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:28:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x77d1…97d7 politics 122 markets active 1h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$990 (+1%) realized +$940 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate12%14W / 106L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$1,359per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$1,502now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$30
14 days−$42
30 days−$181
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 50% −$116
other 40% −$140
sports 4% +$1,201
culture 2% −$6
economics 2% −$4
crypto 1% +$3
world 1% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 46 -1.6% -11.0% 11% 7% -9.7%
≤90d 120 +1.6% -8.1% 12% 8% -9.0%
all 120 +1.6% -8.1% 12% 8% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 8% -9.0%
10% -16.9% 8% -17.7%
15% -24.9% 7% -25.7%
20% -32.3% 7% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,714) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$5 · ×21.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.92 per $1 lost it wins $2.92
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$1,502
Realized+$940
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses14 / 106
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions2
Markets (closed)120 / 122
History coverage89d
Avg bet$1,359
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,104 $1,103 −$1 (-0%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 98¢ 97¢ $403 $399 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $2,236 −$3 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $3,217 −$5 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $3,193 −$5 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $3,357 −$5 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $1,684 −$2 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $3,271 −$5 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $3,320 −$5 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,664 −$3 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $3,373 −$5 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $2,436 −$3 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 06 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $3,072 −$5 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,650 −$3 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $1,635 −$2 -0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 03 $51 +$65 +129%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $2,830 −$6 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 02 $493 +$2 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? Jun 02 $804 +$1 +0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 31 $818 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $1,689 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $673 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $783 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $4,900 −$7 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 25 $1,073 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $1,033 −$1 -0%
Will Portland Timbers win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $931 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $1,003 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $1,490 −$2 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $60 −$60 -100%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 21 $41 +$47 +114%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $1,663 −$3 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 20 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $1,645 −$2 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 19 $1,679 −$2 -0%
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins May 19 $38 +$34 +90%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 18 $1,623 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $1,668 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $2,354 −$3 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $1,714 −$3 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $5,903 −$7 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $1,701 −$3 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $2,552 −$3 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 17 $1,694 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $1,645 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $1,664 −$3 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 15 $1,615 −$2 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 15 $1,690 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $1,615 −$3 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $1,730 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,104 1h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,320 22h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 98¢ $133 23h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 98¢ $270 23h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,321 25h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,572 4d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,575 4d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,521 5d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,523 5d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,343 5d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,345 5d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,682 6d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,684 6d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,522 6d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,524 6d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,543 6d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,545 7d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,662 7d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,664 7d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,698 8d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,701 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,681 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,684 9d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,670 9d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,672 9d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 41¢ $54 11d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,648 11d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,650 11d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,633 11d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,635 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,502.40 · official $1,502.20 (match) · 362 history records