Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:07:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x77d3…f740 crypto 130 markets active 2h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$397 (-20%) realized −$376 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%35W / 88L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$325now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$223
7 days−$504
14 days−$505
30 days−$505
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$995
crypto 22% −$65
sports 8% +$596
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-38.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -74.2% -76.7% 7% 6% -45.4%
≤30d 55 -73.1% -75.7% 7% 5% -45.3%
≤90d 123 -31.7% -38.2% 28% 28% -34.2%
all 123 -31.7% -38.2% 28% 28% -34.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.2% 28% -34.2%
10% -44.1% 26% -40.5%
15% -49.5% 24% -46.2%
20% -54.5% 23% -51.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 76% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -62% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$14 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$325
Realized−$376
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses35 / 88
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions7
Markets (closed)123 / 130
History coverage54d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 2 Ghana? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 2 Ghana? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $75 $75 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 3 Portugal? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Portugal? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 Portugal? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-5%)
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 2 Portugal? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $25 $21 −$4 (-17%)
Exact Score: Croatia 0 - 1 Ghana? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $102 +$253 +248%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 3 DR Congo? Jun 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 2 Sweden? Jun 25 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 0 Sweden? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Japan 0 - 2 Sweden? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 2 Sweden? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 2 Sweden? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 23 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 2 - 1 Real Madrid CF? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 23 $7 −$6 -85%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Qatar? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 23 $31 −$31 -100%
Ghana leading at halftime? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Qatar? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Qatar? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $82 −$82 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Ghana? Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: England 0 - 3 Ghana? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: England 0 - 2 Ghana? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $308 −$308 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 2 Ghana? BUY Yes 4¢ $78 1h
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 2 Ghana? BUY Yes 5¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: Croatia 0 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 Portugal? BUY Yes 10¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 2 Portugal? BUY Yes 9¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 Portugal? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 3 Portugal? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $356 42h
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 2d
Exact Score: Japan 0 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 2d
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 2d
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 2d
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 2d
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 2d
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 3 DR Congo? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 3 DR Congo? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 3d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $381 3d
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? SELL Yes 14¢ $25 3d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: England 0 - 2 Ghana? BUY Yes 1¢ $9 3d
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 3d
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Ghana? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: England 0 - 3 Ghana? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 3d
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $15 3d
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 15¢ $56 3d
Ghana leading at halftime? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $324.72 · official $324.90 (match) · 324 history records