Wallet analysis — Alpha Desk

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$1

7 days−$1

14 days−$1

30 days−$1

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Down	61¢	0¢	$2	$0	−$2 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Jun 12	$2	−$2	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Jun 12	$2	+$2	+105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Jun 12	$2	$0	+17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Jun 12	$2	−$2	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Jun 11	$2	$0	+6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Jun 11	$2	$0	+4%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

crypto 100% −$1

Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	BUY Down	61¢	$2	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	BUY Down	47¢	$2	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	SELL Up	59¢	$2	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	BUY Up	47¢	$2	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	BUY Up	9¢	$2	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	BUY Up	94¢	$2	27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	BUY Up	96¢	$2	27h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-19.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	-11.3%	-19.7%	67%	33%	-19.7%
≤30d	6	-11.3%	-19.7%	67%	33%	-19.7%
≤90d	6	-11.3%	-19.7%	67%	33%	-19.7%
all	6	-11.3%	-19.7%	67%	33%	-19.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

turnover7.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-19.7%	33%	-19.7%
10%	-27.4%	17%	-27.4%
15%	-34.4%	17%	-34.4%
20%	-40.8%	17%	-40.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.