Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T05:48:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x77d6…972d world 27 markets active 3h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,222 (-38%) realized −$2,222 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate37%10W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$217per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$172
7 days−$2,153
14 days−$2,226
30 days−$2,226
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$2,330
world 40% −$24
sports 11% +$106
politics 2% −$9
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -7.4% -16.2% 67% 67% -79.6%
≤30d 4 -30.6% -37.2% 50% 50% -80.1%
≤90d 27 -10.1% -18.7% 37% 7% -44.5%
all 27 -10.1% -18.7% 37% 7% -44.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 7% -44.5%
10% -26.4% 7% -49.8%
15% -33.6% 7% -54.7%
20% -40.1% 0% -59.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$154 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,222
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses10 / 17
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage86d
Avg bet$217
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $152 +$63 +42%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $303 +$109 +36%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,326 −$2,326 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $73 −$72 -99%
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by April 30? Apr 02 $200 +$4 +2%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 02 $415 −$10 -2%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Apr 02 $115 −$1 -1%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 02 $325 +$3 +1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 02 $66 −$2 -3%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? Apr 02 $256 −$12 -4%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 02 $51 +$2 +3%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 02 $269 +$5 +2%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 02 $343 +$2 +1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 01 $224 −$1 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Apr 01 $15 −$1 -9%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 01 $15 −$1 -7%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Apr 01 $15 −$1 -9%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 01 $150 −$4 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 01 $80 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 01 $42 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? Apr 01 $30 $0 +1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 01 $58 $0 +1%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 01 $45 −$5 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Mar 31 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? Mar 31 $10 $0 -4%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? Mar 31 $125 −$9 -7%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? Mar 31 $150 −$2 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 92¢ $215 2h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score SELL No 93¢ $412 2h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score BUY No 68¢ $303 3h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 64¢ $152 3h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes $2 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $611 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $589 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $1,123 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $73 11d
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by April 30? BUY Yes 49¢ $96 83d
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by April 30? BUY Yes 49¢ $4 83d
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by April 30? BUY No 49¢ $1 83d
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by April 30? BUY No 49¢ $1 83d
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by April 30? BUY No 49¢ $98 83d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 48¢ $98 83d
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $98 83d
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $100 83d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 48¢ $96 83d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 50¢ $100 83d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 49¢ $61 84d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 49¢ $14 84d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 49¢ $13 84d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 49¢ $11 84d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 49¢ $100 84d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 49¢ $100 84d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 48¢ $97 84d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 50¢ $100 84d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? SELL Yes 56¢ $112 84d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? SELL No 43¢ $30 84d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 57¢ $114 84d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 209 history records