Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:02:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
77 0x77d7…f33a crypto 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized −$24 · open +$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%8W / 6L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day44.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$155now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$14
weather 8% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -5.5% -14.5% 57% 57% -8.9%
≤30d 14 -5.5% -14.5% 57% 57% -8.9%
≤90d 14 -5.5% -14.5% 57% 57% -8.9%
all 14 -5.5% -14.5% 57% 57% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.5% 57% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -22.7% 43% -17.6%
15% -30.2% 43% -25.5%
20% -37.0% 43% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late +25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$70 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$155
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses8 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day44.0
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Down 61¢ 76¢ $125 $155 +$30 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 20 $515 −$284 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 20 $52 −$46 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 20 $304 +$63 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 20 $2 +$3 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 20 $129 +$75 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 20 $101 +$69 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 20 $154 +$101 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 20 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 20 $129 +$82 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $141 +$27 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $103 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $102 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $99 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $103 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $367 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $101 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $101 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $101 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $187 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $18 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $101 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $255 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $26 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $26 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $154.62 · official $121.06 · 50 history records