Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:44:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
77 0x77da…2fd2 other 72 markets active 2h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$129 (+2%) realized +$150 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate60%37W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$1,573now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$91
7 days+$167
14 days−$397
30 days−$284
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 36% +$276
other 35% −$615
world 19% +$73
politics 9% −$39
tech 1% +$6
sports 0% +$9
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -8.3% -17.0% 43% 29% -1.5%
≤30d 45 -5.4% -14.4% 60% 24% -14.1%
≤90d 62 -2.5% -11.7% 60% 24% -13.7%
all 62 -2.5% -11.7% 60% 24% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 24% -13.7%
10% -20.2% 11% -22.0%
15% -27.9% 8% -29.5%
20% -35.0% 3% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$31 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$1,573
Realized+$150
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses37 / 25
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)62 / 72
History coverage35d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? No 81¢ 78¢ $669 $648 −$21 (-3%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? No 69¢ 75¢ $482 $522 +$40 (+8%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 89¢ 94¢ $204 $214 +$10 (+5%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Yes 19¢ 25¢ $52 $69 +$17 (+33%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 19¢ 14¢ $50 $39 −$11 (-22%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $39 $33 −$6 (-15%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 2.5% and 2.9%? Yes 20¢ 38¢ $6 $12 +$6 (+93%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? Yes 16¢ 4¢ $17 $4 −$13 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 18 $49 +$4 +8%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $62 +$4 +6%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 18 $201 +$5 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? Jun 17 $76 −$32 -42%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 17 $565 +$110 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +49%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $62 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $41 −$1 -2%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $21 +$5 +24%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +321%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $85 −$5 -6%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $127 −$9 -7%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -50%
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026 Jun 13 $95 −$25 -27%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 13 $492 +$108 +22%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 11 $50 +$2 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 10 $579 +$49 +8%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Jun 08 $993 −$638 -64%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by less than 3%? Jun 08 $6 −$1 -21%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Jun 06 $91 +$15 +16%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 06 $19 −$2 -12%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 06 $28 +$12 +42%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 28 $488 +$41 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $60 +$10 +16%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $250 +$18 +7%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 27 $134 +$9 +7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $180 −$24 -13%
UK Government approval Up or Down this week? May 26 $6 −$6 -99%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 25 $25 +$4 +14%
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 25 $197 −$16 -8%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 25 $55 +$2 +3%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 25 $57 +$2 +3%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 25 $137 +$12 +9%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in May? May 25 $101 +$2 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 25 $220 +$35 +16%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 24 $100 +$7 +7%
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? May 24 $100 +$5 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $89 +$8 +9%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 20 $71 +$4 +6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 18 $10 $0 -4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 18 $19 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 18 $8 +$2 +29%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 18 $10 +$2 +16%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 18 $10 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? BUY No 86¢ $21 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL Yes 22¢ $22 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY No 78¢ $29 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL Yes 23¢ $29 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 7h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? SELL No 85¢ $51 7h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY Yes 15¢ $49 9h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL No 85¢ $49 9h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 90¢ $120 11h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL No 88¢ $119 11h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 90¢ $51 11h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL No 69¢ $53 11h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? BUY No 87¢ $65 12h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $66 12h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? BUY No 88¢ $207 12h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 79¢ $206 12h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 62¢ $49 28h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL No 91¢ $49 28h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? BUY No 76¢ $44 29h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? SELL No 35¢ $44 29h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? BUY No 77¢ $290 29h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL No 91¢ $289 29h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? BUY No 79¢ $96 32h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL No 91¢ $96 32h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 85¢ $33 34h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June? SELL Yes 17¢ $33 34h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY No 58¢ $76 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 19¢ $30 36h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 36h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,573.43 · official $1,573.57 (match) · 271 history records