Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:00:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x77df…de44 other 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$180 (-15%) realized −$180 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate30%9W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$113
other 39% −$226
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -9.9% -18.5% 30% 27% -18.1%
≤30d 30 -9.9% -18.5% 30% 27% -18.1%
≤90d 30 -9.9% -18.5% 30% 27% -18.1%
all 30 -9.9% -18.5% 30% 27% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 27% -18.1%
10% -26.3% 27% -25.9%
15% -33.4% 23% -33.1%
20% -39.9% 17% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$14 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$180
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses9 / 21
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage6d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $6 +$9 +145%
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $81 +$83 +102%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $2 −$1 -40%
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 29 $2 −$2 -78%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $23 −$22 -92%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $5 +$2 +38%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $5 −$4 -72%
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Mostafa Zico: 1+ goals Jun 27 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $5 +$3 +69%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Jun 27 $5 −$3 -65%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 27 $5 −$2 -48%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 27 $5 +$6 +110%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ shots Jun 26 $2 −$2 -99%
Lamine Yamal: 4+ shots Jun 26 $3 −$3 -99%
Norway vs. France: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $10 +$55 +534%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $23 −$20 -86%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $30 −$30 -99%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $81 +$23 +29%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $10 +$5 +48%
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $82 −$22 -26%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $123 −$25 -20%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 25 $91 −$65 -72%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $52 −$51 -99%
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $246 +$5 +2%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1 $0 -8%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $178 −$14 -8%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 23 $20 −$4 -22%
Portugal to win the second half? Jun 23 $59 −$14 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 40m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $164 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 46¢ $7 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $5 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes $0 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $5 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $5 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $5 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 17¢ $2 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $61 4h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes $2 23h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $23 23h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 72¢ $5 2d
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $5 2d
Mostafa Zico: 1+ goals BUY Yes 21¢ $3 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 99¢ $9 2d
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals SELL Yes 14¢ $2 2d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals SELL Yes 19¢ $3 2d
Spain leading at halftime? SELL Yes 94¢ $11 2d
Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ shots BUY Yes 52¢ $2 2d
Lamine Yamal: 4+ shots BUY Yes 53¢ $3 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 2d
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 38¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 64 history records