Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:33:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
77 0x77e1…2770 other 118 markets active 2h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$47 (+0%) realized +$47 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate9%11W / 107L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$263per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$16
politics 31% −$11
sports 12% +$73
tech 3% −$1
crypto 2% $0
economics 1% −$1
world 1% $0
finance 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 73 -0.1% -9.6% 1% 0% -9.6%
all 118 +0.9% -8.7% 9% 6% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 6% -9.4%
10% -17.4% 5% -18.1%
15% -25.4% 4% -26.0%
20% -32.7% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$1 · ×16.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses11 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)118 / 118
History coverage130d
Avg bet$263
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 118 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $44 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $33 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $261 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $526 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $221 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $193 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $235 $0 -0%
Will Hubert Hurkacz win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 26 $234 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $460 −$1 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $212 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $252 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $218 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $183 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 21 $184 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $222 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $273 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $217 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $266 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $468 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 16 $250 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $261 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 14 $207 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $253 $0 -0%
Will Karen Khachanov win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 13 $275 −$1 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $817 −$1 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 10 $215 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $241 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $203 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $249 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $489 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $448 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $494 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $254 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 17 $240 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $543 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $192 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $197 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $210 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $212 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $205 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $532 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $470 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $956 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $795 −$1 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $212 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 10 $255 $0 -0%
Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 10 $208 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 08 $535 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 08 $949 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 07 $96 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $44 2h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $44 27h
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 27h
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 31h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 31h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 33h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 33h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 2d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $221 2d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $221 16d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $193 25d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $193 26d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $235 26d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $235 27d
Will Hubert Hurkacz win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 100¢ $234 27d
Will Hubert Hurkacz win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 100¢ $234 27d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $260 27d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $261 28d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $212 29d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $212 29d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $256 29d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $256 29d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $252 30d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $252 30d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $218 30d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $218 31d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $183 31d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $183 32d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $184 32d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $184 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 368 history records