Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:26:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x77e1…4fdd sports 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2 (+2%) realized +$3 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$7
other 25% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$6 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized+$3
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions15
Markets (closed)1 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Iraq 41¢ 42¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 175.5 Over 59¢ 60¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 62¢ 62¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? No 84¢ 84¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Iraq 83¢ 82¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) DR Congo 72¢ 72¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Minnesota Twins 63¢ 62¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
France leading at halftime? No 50¢ 50¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Haiti 83¢ 82¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? No 32¢ 32¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 Under 28¢ 28¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? No 24¢ 24¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Over 20¢ 20¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score No 51¢ 50¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 24¢ 22¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 20¢ $6 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Under 28¢ $6 1h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Haiti 83¢ $6 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 24¢ $6 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 72¢ $6 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $6 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 84¢ $6 1h
Spread: Norway (-3.5) BUY Iraq 83¢ $6 2h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 41¢ $6 2h
France leading at halftime? BUY No 50¢ $6 2h
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) BUY Minnesota Twins 63¢ $6 2h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 175.5 BUY Over 59¢ $6 2h
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Daniil Glinka BUY Daniil Glinka 45¢ $6 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 32¢ $6 4h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $6 4h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 62¢ $6 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.86 · official $88.86 (match) · 16 history records