Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:33:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
77 0x77e3…2216 sports 178 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$25 (+2%) realized +$22 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate55%97W / 79L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$86
7 days−$71
14 days−$106
30 days−$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% $0
other 2% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -25.0% -32.2% 36% 32% -23.9%
≤30d 100 -20.7% -28.2% 42% 38% -20.3%
≤90d 153 -9.1% -17.8% 52% 49% -11.9%
all 176 -6.6% -15.5% 55% 51% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 51% -10.1%
10% -23.6% 43% -18.7%
15% -31.0% 34% -26.6%
20% -37.7% 25% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses97 / 79
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)176 / 178
History coverage104d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 176 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 82¢ 100¢ $14 $17 +$3 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $101 +$8 +8%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $7 −$7 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -60%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $11 −$4 -39%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $6 +$7 +114%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $15 +$2 +16%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $34 +$13 +39%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $7 +$4 +62%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $4 −$3 -79%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Germany (-2.5) AND Netherland Jun 14 $1 +$3 +283%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $21 +$1 +3%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $3 +$4 +134%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +90%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$7 +327%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $25 +$7 +27%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $5 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $15 +$5 +34%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $6 +$7 +109%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $26 +$4 +17%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $6 +$3 +58%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 12 $7 −$3 -40%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $20 +$4 +20%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $3 +$2 +65%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $40 +$9 +21%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 11 $2 +$5 +307%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $6 +$7 +119%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 1 - 2 Arsenal FC? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 71¢ $20 45m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 90¢ $15 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 52¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 82¢ $28 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 5h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 95¢ $14 6h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 95¢ $35 6h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 81¢ $85 7h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL BetBoom Team 21¢ $7 7h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $15 9h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $7 21h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $10 29h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $6 42h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 42h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 42h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 65¢ $7 43h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $11 43h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 47¢ $5 2d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL Team Vitality 78¢ $14 2d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL Team Vitality 78¢ $4 2d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 66¢ $15 2d
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $24 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl SELL Leviatán Esports 97¢ $24 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Leviatán Esports 70¢ $34 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Over 25¢ $1 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 SELL 9¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.73 · official $16.73 (match) · 405 history records