Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T16:46:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x77e4…12dd crypto 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$103 (+5%) realized +$103 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%9W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day54.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$103
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-31.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -24.7% -31.9% 33% 33% -4.9%
≤30d 27 -24.7% -31.9% 33% 33% -4.9%
≤90d 27 -24.7% -31.9% 33% 33% -4.9%
all 27 -24.7% -31.9% 33% 33% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.9% 33% -4.9%
10% ← realistic here -38.4% 33% -14.0%
15% -44.4% 30% -22.3%
20% -49.8% 30% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -57% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$132 vs −$60 · ×2.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$103
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses9 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage1d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day54.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 29 $105 +$245 +232%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 29 $221 −$212 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 29 $58 −$55 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 29 $31 +$32 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 29 $137 +$169 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 29 $104 +$101 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 29 $48 −$45 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 29 $37 −$35 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 29 $79 −$75 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 29 $58 −$55 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 29 $126 +$372 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 29 $105 +$29 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 29 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 29 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 29 $196 +$131 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 29 $27 −$27 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 29 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 29 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 29 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 29 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 29 $31 +$37 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 29 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 29 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 29 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 29 $139 −$130 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 29 $103 +$69 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 29 $32 −$30 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $343 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $7 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $105 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $158 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $62 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $16 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $42 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $63 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $31 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 63¢ $307 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $205 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $134 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $105 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 61 history records