Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:45:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x77e8…58f3 crypto 50 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$23 (+6%) realized +$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate45%22W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day30.1pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$29
other 14% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -4.4% -13.5% 45% 31% -16.2%
≤30d 49 -4.4% -13.5% 45% 31% -16.2%
≤90d 49 -4.4% -13.5% 45% 31% -16.2%
all 49 -4.4% -13.5% 45% 31% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.5% 31% -16.2%
10% ← realistic here -21.8% 20% -24.2%
15% -29.4% 14% -31.6%
20% -36.3% 8% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses22 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage4d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day30.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Down 63¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 20 $13 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 20 $6 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1 $0 -27%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $3 +$1 +31%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 20 $2 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 20 $15 −$13 -86%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 20 $2 $0 -15%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? Jun 20 $2 $0 -17%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Jun 20 $4 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 20 $11 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 20 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 20 $21 −$9 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 20 $12 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 20 $34 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 20 $20 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 20 $12 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 20 $9 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 20 $22 −$4 -16%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $2 $0 -3%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $5 $0 -5%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $13 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 20 $6 +$1 +10%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 20 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 20 $23 +$7 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 20 $6 −$4 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 20 $8 +$7 +86%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 20 $14 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2PM ET Jun 20 $18 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 20 $7 +$5 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 20 $13 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 20 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 20 $1 +$3 +258%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +3%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $2 $0 -7%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $2 $0 +9%
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $5 +$3 +49%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +45%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $9 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $8 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $10 10m
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 16m
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 16m
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 17m
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 17m
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 18m
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $6 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $6 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $13 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $11 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $6 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $11 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $11 46m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.81 · official $1.86 (match) · 136 history records