Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:12:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x77f1…91bd other 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$448 (-7%) realized −$399 · open −$49
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate37%7W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$235per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$54est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$4,667now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$133
7 days−$329
14 days−$360
30 days−$360
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$334
sports 19% −$74
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-46.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -42.9% -48.4% 31% 31% -29.9%
≤30d 19 -40.3% -46.0% 37% 32% -28.3%
≤90d 19 -40.3% -46.0% 37% 32% -28.3%
all 19 -40.3% -46.0% 37% 32% -28.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.0% 32% -28.3%
10% -51.2% 11% -35.1%
15% -55.9% 5% -41.4%
20% -60.2% 5% -47.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$49 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$4,667
Realized−$399
Unrealized−$49
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses7 / 12
Est. fees paid−$54
Open positions9
Markets (closed)19 / 28
History coverage7d
Avg bet$235
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mirra Andreeva be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1,422 $1,422 +$0 (+0%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $1,242 $1,356 +$114 (+9%)
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $576 $538 −$38 (-7%)
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes $504 $504 +$0 (+0%)
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $396 $367 −$29 (-7%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $180 $174 −$6 (-4%)
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $162 $159 −$3 (-2%)
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Travelers Championship? Yes $126 $89 −$37 (-30%)
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 Travelers Championship? Yes $108 $58 −$50 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $147 +$20 +14%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $55 +$10 +19%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $111 −$41 -37%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $222 +$57 +26%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $111 −$108 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $74 −$72 -97%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $28 −$27 -97%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $9 −$9 -97%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $19 −$10 -56%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $37 −$7 -18%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $73 −$72 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $183 +$40 +22%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $111 −$108 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $74 −$6 -8%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $146 +$75 +52%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $74 −$72 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $55 −$54 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $111 +$5 +4%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $111 +$19 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mirra Andreeva be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes 15¢ $148 1h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $168 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 15¢ $66 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $37 4h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $37 4h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $148 4h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $129 4h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 12¢ $55 4h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $147 4h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes $70 4h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $279 4h
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Travelers Championship? BUY Yes $130 5h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 Travelers Championship? BUY Yes $111 5h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 21¢ $405 6h
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 14¢ $111 7h
Will Mirra Andreeva be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes 15¢ $129 7h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 16¢ $406 12h
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 15¢ $369 12h
Will Mirra Andreeva be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes 16¢ $369 12h
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $185 12h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $111 13h
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $333 14h
Will Mirra Andreeva be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes 15¢ $406 14h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 16¢ $369 14h
Will Mirra Andreeva be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes 13¢ $406 17h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $111 17h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $222 17h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $74 17h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 15¢ $406 17h
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY Yes 12¢ $111 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,667.07 · official $4,667.08 (match) · 57 history records