Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:23:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

77 0x77f4…148c sports 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$1,613 (+35%) realized +$994 · open +$619

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +60% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip

Net edge+28%after slip

Net WR80%break-even

Win rate100%5W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$765per market

Trades / day11.5pace

Fees−$45est.

Kalshi-fit83%portable

Net worth$2,008now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +80%

net ROI/market (all)+44.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+59.9%	+44.7%	100%	80%	+42.4%
≤30d	5	+59.9%	+44.7%	100%	80%	+42.4%
≤90d	5	+59.9%	+44.7%	100%	80%	+42.4%
all	5	+59.9%	+44.7%	100%	80%	+42.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover11.5 tr/day

realistic slip~11%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+44.7%	80%	+42.4%
10% ← realistic here	+30.8%	80%	+28.7%
15%	+18.2%	80%	+16.3%
20%	+6.6%	60%	+4.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 34% · top 2 67% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +57% too few recent

Fragile wins

20% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +60% · $-wt +57% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$365 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$2,008

Realized+$994

Unrealized+$619

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses5 / 0

Est. fees paid−$45

Open positions1

Markets (closed)5 / 6

History coverage1d

Avg bet$765

Trades / day11.5

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Game Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+1.5)	Team Liquid	64¢	92¢	$1,389	$2,008	+$619 (+45%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5)	Jun 29	$1,429	+$621	+44%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	Jun 28	$703	+$604	+86%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs	Jun 28	$344	+$1	+0%
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5)	Jun 28	$350	+$368	+105%
Games Total: O/U 3.5	Jun 28	$360	+$233	+65%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Game Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+1.5)	BUY Team Liquid	64¢	$705	1h
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5)	SELL T1	100¢	$2,050	1h
Game Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+1.5)	BUY Team Liquid	64¢	$699	1h
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5)	BUY T1	70¢	$706	4h
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5)	BUY T1	69¢	$9	4h
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5)	BUY T1	68¢	$27	5h
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5)	BUY T1	68¢	$687	5h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	SELL Yes	100¢	$1,307	10h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	BUY Yes	53¢	$703	12h
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs	SELL Sharks	66¢	$346	19h
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs	BUY Sharks	64¢	$344	22h
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5)	BUY Karmine Corp	48¢	$350	28h
Games Total: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	60¢	$360	28h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,007.77 · official $2,007.77 (match) · 15 history records