Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:47:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x77f4…4410 world 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$12 (-5%) realized −$47 · open +$35
Gross ROI / mkt -70% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -73% what you keep after slip
Net edge-73%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%2W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$217now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% −$6
other 10% $0
finance 9% −$6
politics 6% −$1
sports 4% −$6
tech 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-73.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -25.4% -32.5% 50% 50% +12.4%
≤30d 4 -25.4% -32.5% 50% 50% +12.4%
≤90d 10 -70.2% -73.0% 20% 20% -69.6%
all 10 -70.2% -73.0% 20% 20% -69.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -73.0% 20% -69.6%
10% -75.6% 20% -72.5%
15% -77.9% 10% -75.2%
20% -80.1% 10% -77.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -66% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -70% · $-wt -66% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$217
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$35
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses2 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions14
Markets (closed)10 / 24
History coverage70d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 87¢ 85¢ $47 $46 −$1 (-3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 93¢ $1 $35 +$34 (+2559%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 19¢ 38¢ $9 $18 +$9 (+103%)
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Yes $13 $12 −$1 (-7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 15¢ 28¢ $6 $11 +$5 (+85%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes $9 $9 +$0 (+3%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes $12 $9 −$4 (-31%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Yes $8 $6 −$2 (-24%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 12¢ 12¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $6 $6 −$1 (-9%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No $5 $3 −$2 (-36%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Yes $5 $3 −$2 (-39%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+28%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes $2 $1 −$1 (-67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $18 −$2 -12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $14 +$11 +75%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +23%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 07 $25 −$25 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 07 $29 −$29 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes $1 36m
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes $0 36m
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No $2 1h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY Yes $3 1h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No 12¢ $3 1h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY Yes $6 1h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $22 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $3 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $4 15h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY No 12¢ $3 41h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY Yes $0 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY Yes $0 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY Yes $0 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY Yes $4 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY Yes $2 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY Yes $0 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY Yes $0 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY Yes $0 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY Yes $0 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $25 3d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY Yes $0 3d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes $3 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes $4 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $217.44 · official $217.44 (match) · 59 history records