Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:21:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x77f6…dbd1 sports 534 markets active 2h ago coverage 189d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$137,144 (-13%) realized −$139,271 · open +$2,127
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%252W / 281L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,003per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$11,473est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4,501now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6,659
7 days−$9,968
14 days−$17,947
30 days−$15,903
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$143,772
crypto 0% +$90
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -3.5% -12.7% 40% 40% -25.4%
≤30d 62 -6.0% -15.0% 39% 39% -21.7%
≤90d 336 -11.5% -19.9% 42% 40% -26.0%
all 533 -6.4% -15.3% 47% 45% -21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 45% -21.9%
10% -23.4% 45% -29.4%
15% -30.8% 42% -36.2%
20% -37.6% 36% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$2,804) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,525 vs −$1,886 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

189d coverage
Net worth$4,501
Realized−$139,271
Unrealized+$2,127
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses252 / 281
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$11,473
Open positions1
Markets (closed)533 / 534
History coverage189d
Avg bet$2,003
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 533 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Adrian Mannarino Nuno Borges 53¢ 100¢ $2,374 $4,501 +$2,127 (+90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $5,308 −$970 -18%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $5,084 −$5,084 -100%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $907 +$1,433 +158%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 20 $2,958 −$63 -2%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $4,350 −$4,350 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $2,998 +$2,374 +79%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $2,977 +$3,505 +118%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $1,993 −$1,993 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $978 +$1,589 +162%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 18 $511 +$1,410 +276%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1,045 −$1,045 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $1,548 −$1,548 -100%
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 18 $987 +$561 +57%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 17 $1,016 −$1,016 -100%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 17 $983 −$983 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $1,018 −$1,018 -100%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $999 +$3,434 +344%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $1,007 −$1,007 -100%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Chris Rodesch Jun 16 $2,025 +$994 +49%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,263 −$1,263 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $2,108 +$1,751 +83%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $994 −$994 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,610 −$1,610 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $2,002 −$2,002 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $649 +$616 +95%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 14 $2,483 −$2,483 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $3,713 −$3,713 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,170 −$1,170 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $4,608 +$2,060 +45%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,987 +$2,615 +132%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $2,846 +$867 +30%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $2,180 −$2,180 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $2,300 −$2,300 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1,979 −$1,979 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $2,527 +$4,861 +192%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1,993 +$2,165 +109%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1,993 −$1,993 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $320 −$320 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 12 $3,132 −$3,132 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $2,999 −$2,999 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $2,331 −$2,331 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $966 +$1,143 +118%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 11 $2,027 −$2,027 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 11 $1,084 −$1,084 -100%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 11 $1,999 +$3,331 +167%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $953 +$1,793 +188%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Jun 01 $103 −$103 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 01 $565 −$565 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev Jun 01 $2,059 −$2,059 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $1,697 −$1,697 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Nuno Borges 51¢ $6 1h
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Nuno Borges 53¢ $2,402 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 65¢ $980 16h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 30¢ $2,970 16h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $14 19h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $4,314 19h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 100¢ $2,340 19h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 38¢ $907 21h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Brandon Nakashima 51¢ $2,895 21h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 41¢ $17 22h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 41¢ $5,066 22h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Brandon Nakashima 48¢ $3 24h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Brandon Nakashima 48¢ $1,252 24h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Brandon Nakashima 53¢ $1,703 24h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 71¢ $5 41h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 70¢ $4,345 41h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $5,372 41h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 55¢ $7 45h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 55¢ $2,991 45h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 100¢ $6,481 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 34¢ $459 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 48¢ $2,518 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $2,567 2d
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci SELL Raphael Collignon 100¢ $1,921 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 37¢ $978 2d
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Raphael Collignon 26¢ $511 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 40¢ $7 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 40¢ $1,986 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 50¢ $4 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 50¢ $1,544 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,500.87 · official $4,500.87 (match) · 1397 history records