Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:21:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
77 0x77f7…9385 sports 86 markets active 2h ago coverage 613d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,044 (-14%) realized −$1,044 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate45%37W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$226
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$818
other 24% −$255
crypto 2% +$47
politics 1% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -4.9% -13.9% 50% 46% -9.2%
≤30d 24 -4.9% -13.9% 50% 46% -9.2%
≤90d 24 -4.9% -13.9% 50% 46% -9.2%
all 83 -11.5% -19.9% 45% 42% -22.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 42% -22.7%
10% -27.6% 41% -30.1%
15% -34.6% 39% -36.9%
20% -41.0% 34% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$70 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

613d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,044
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses37 / 46
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)83 / 86
History coverage613d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 83 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) Jun 21 $51 +$36 +70%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Sinja Kraus Jun 21 $76 +$56 +73%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova Jun 21 $58 +$21 +37%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$8 +33%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $51 +$37 +73%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $40 +$52 +128%
Brescia: Mayar Sherif vs Elizara Yaneva Jun 20 $42 +$42 +101%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Marie Bouzkova Jun 20 $64 −$63 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray Jun 20 $71 −$6 -9%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $79 +$54 +68%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $99 −$98 -99%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Sebastian Ofner Jun 19 $76 −$38 -50%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Alina Charaeva Jun 19 $96 +$59 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 19 $52 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$36 +140%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $51 −$26 -51%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $85 +$48 +57%
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Raphael Perot Jun 18 $75 −$74 -99%
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mia Ristic Jun 17 $46 −$45 -99%
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere Jun 16 $30 −$29 -98%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $56 −$55 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 16 $61 −$5 -8%
Lions vs. Vikings Dec 25 $13 −$13 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Dec 25 $42 +$41 +98%
Spurs vs. Thunder: 1H Moneyline Dec 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Dec 25 $84 −$28 -33%
Will Al Fayha Saudi Club win on 2025-12-25? Dec 25 $46 +$37 +81%
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs L1ga Team (BO3) Dec 25 $25 −$25 -99%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) Dec 25 $77 −$77 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Dec 25 $20 +$25 +128%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Dec 25 $70 +$49 +71%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) Dec 25 $78 +$48 +61%
LoL: Team WE vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Dec 25 $47 +$32 +68%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Winter Bear (BO3) Dec 24 $25 −$1 -4%
Will Cameroon win on 2025-12-24? Dec 24 $85 −$85 -100%
KHL: Shanghai Dragons vs. Spartak Moscow Dec 24 $48 +$60 +125%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2025-12-24? Dec 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Shadowkek vs Team magixx (BO3) Dec 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Burkina Faso win on 2025-12-24? Dec 24 $80 +$65 +81%
Counter-Strike: CSDIILIT vs megoshort (BO3) Dec 24 $59 −$59 -100%
Pakistan Tri-Series: Pakistan vs Sri Lanka (Game 5) Nov 27 $200 −$184 -92%
Nationals vs. Angels Jun 29 $190 +$81 +42%
Marlins vs. Diamondbacks Jun 29 $250 −$123 -49%
Rays vs. Orioles Jun 29 $175 +$137 +78%
Mallorca Championships: Griekspoor vs. Auger-Aliassime Jun 29 $350 −$350 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-05-16? May 17 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-05-16? May 17 $250 −$250 -100%
UEFA Europa League: Athletic Club vs. Manchester United (To Advance) May 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $86 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND BUY 21¢ $77 4h
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 58¢ $51 5h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Sinja Kraus BUY Sinja Kraus 57¢ $76 8h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova SELL Solana Sierra 76¢ $79 9h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova BUY Solana Sierra 54¢ $58 11h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 12h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 23h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $51 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $92 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $40 26h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 AND Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2. BUY 20¢ $43 26h
Brescia: Mayar Sherif vs Elizara Yaneva SELL Mayar Sherif 96¢ $83 27h
Brescia: Mayar Sherif vs Elizara Yaneva BUY Mayar Sherif 47¢ $42 27h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Marie Bouzkova BUY Karolina Pliskova 46¢ $64 33h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray SELL Matteo Arnaldi 53¢ $65 33h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray BUY Matteo Arnaldi 57¢ $71 33h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 25¢ $51 2d
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 61¢ $99 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 79¢ $17 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 71¢ $94 2d
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Sebastian Ofner SELL Laslo Djere 25¢ $38 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 44¢ $79 2d
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Sebastian Ofner BUY Laslo Djere 48¢ $76 2d
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Alina Charaeva SELL Alina Charaeva 100¢ $156 2d
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Alina Charaeva BUY Alina Charaeva 61¢ $96 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $55 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $75.00 · 181 history records