Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:44:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
77 0x77f9…655d crypto 201 markets active 1h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3,861 (+50%) realized +$3,866 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate24%48W / 152L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$112now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$263
14 days−$493
30 days+$3,463
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$3,668
politics 1% −$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)+5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -68.3% -71.3% 20% 20% -78.8%
≤30d 115 +19.2% +7.8% 17% 17% +19.3%
≤90d 200 +16.1% +5.0% 24% 24% +12.1%
all 200 +16.1% +5.0% 24% 24% +12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.0% 24% +12.1%
10% -5.0% 24% +1.4%
15% -14.2% 24% -8.4%
20% -22.6% 23% -17.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +50% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$192 vs −$37 · ×5.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.65 per $1 lost it wins $1.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$112
Realized+$3,866
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses48 / 152
Open positions1
Markets (closed)200 / 201
History coverage48d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 200 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? No 7¢ 7¢ $117 $112 −$5 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 111 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $53 −$49 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 13 $77 −$73 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$30 +59%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $101 −$94 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $82 −$76 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $51 −$48 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 09 $51 −$48 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $92 −$86 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 09 $76 −$71 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 09 $26 +$315 +1226%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 09 $26 −$24 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 09 $26 −$24 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 08 $51 −$48 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 08 $52 −$48 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 08 $52 −$49 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 07 $100 −$94 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 06 $80 −$75 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 06 $25 −$24 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 06 $51 −$48 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 06 $26 −$24 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 06 $84 −$79 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 06 $57 +$176 +308%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $165 −$154 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 06 $46 +$314 +677%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 05 $26 +$81 +308%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $26 −$25 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 04 $132 −$124 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 04 $52 −$49 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 04 $30 −$29 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 04 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 04 $22 −$21 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 04 $19 −$18 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 04 $19 −$18 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 04 $26 +$42 +161%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $68 +$457 +671%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 04 $57 −$54 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 04 $68 −$64 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 04 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 04 $26 −$24 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 04 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 04 $26 −$24 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 04 $26 −$24 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 03 $14 −$13 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 03 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 03 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 03 $38 +$130 +343%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 03 $54 +$334 +617%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 03 $74 −$71 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 03 $88 −$56 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 03 $31 +$93 +306%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 7¢ $50 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 8¢ $75 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 3¢ $53 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $27 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $51 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $81 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $50 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 6¢ $50 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? BUY No 4¢ $26 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? BUY No 3¢ $1 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? BUY No 3¢ $9 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? BUY No 3¢ $46 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 3¢ $51 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 1¢ $15 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $27 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $48 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $341 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $16 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $8 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $26 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $26 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 1¢ $26 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? BUY No 2¢ $51 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.30 · official $112.30 (match) · 442 history records