Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:51:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x77fc…0eac sports 287 markets active 0h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 92d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,562 (+3%) realized +$2,582 · open −$20
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate41%116W / 164L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$271per market
Trades / day34.6pace
Fees−$574est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$384now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days−$526
14 days+$678
30 days+$839
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 36% +$2,151
sports 31% −$891
other 29% +$790
crypto 4% +$133
weather 1% −$134
economics 0% +$20
world 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -15.1% -23.2% 36% 16% -11.3%
≤30d 157 +9.7% -0.7% 48% 36% -8.1%
≤90d 279 -10.6% -19.1% 41% 33% -7.1%
all 280 -10.4% -18.9% 41% 33% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.9% 33% -7.1%
10% ← realistic here -26.7% 29% -16.0%
15% -33.8% 25% -24.1%
20% -40.3% 22% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -23% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$42 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$384
Realized+$2,582
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses116 / 164
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$574
Open positions7
Markets (closed)280 / 287
History coverage92d ⚠
Avg bet$271
Trades / day34.6
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 280 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Under 16¢ 16¢ $320 $330 +$10 (+3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $54 $36 −$18 (-34%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $8 $8 −$1 (-9%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $5 +$2 (+69%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $4 +$0 (+7%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $1 −$1 (-41%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $13 $1 −$12 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $80 −$13 -17%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 20 $6 +$16 +266%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $80 −$2 -3%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 20 $380 $0 -0%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $340 +$20 +6%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $860 $0 +0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: United States (-3.5) Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $725 −$10 -1%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $880 +$20 +2%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 19 $112 −$112 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,980 +$20 +1%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 18 $108 +$92 +85%
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Jun 18 $210 $0 -0%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $208 +$13 +6%
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) Jun 18 $13 $0 -3%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $240 +$40 +17%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $175 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $73 −$39 -53%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $200 +$25 +12%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $460 $0 -0%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $200 $0 +0%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $141 −$9 -7%
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) Jun 17 $159 +$5 +3%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $341 +$31 +9%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $345 +$23 +7%
DR Congo leading at halftime? Jun 17 $360 +$25 +7%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $860 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,500 −$11 -1%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4,034 +$6 +0%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $114 −$114 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2,048 +$152 +7%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $212 −$212 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $148 −$148 -100%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $67 −$67 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $137 −$137 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $94 −$94 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $142 −$142 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 15 $110 −$110 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 15 $96 −$96 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2,117 +$133 +6%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $104 +$96 +92%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $154 +$166 +108%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3,772 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 14 $74 −$74 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $106 −$106 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $144 −$144 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $66 0m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 16¢ $193 18m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 16¢ $2 18m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 16¢ $38 19m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 16¢ $1 21m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 16¢ $21 24m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 16¢ $21 24m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 16¢ $19 27m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 16¢ $10 28m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 16¢ $1 29m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 16¢ $2 29m
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) SELL Netherlands 79¢ $19 29m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 16¢ $13 30m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 SELL Under $78 1h
Sweden leading at halftime? SELL Yes 19¢ $79 2h
Sweden leading at halftime? SELL Yes 19¢ $18 2h
Sweden leading at halftime? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 2h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) SELL Netherlands 15¢ $3 2h
Sweden leading at halftime? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 2h
Sweden leading at halftime? SELL Yes 19¢ $55 2h
Sweden leading at halftime? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 2h
Sweden leading at halftime? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 2h
Sweden leading at halftime? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 2h
Sweden leading at halftime? SELL Yes 19¢ $39 2h
Sweden leading at halftime? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 2h
Sweden leading at halftime? SELL Yes 19¢ $11 2h
Sweden leading at halftime? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 2h
Sweden leading at halftime? SELL Yes 19¢ $26 2h
Sweden leading at halftime? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 2h
Sweden leading at halftime? SELL Yes 19¢ $19 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $384.50 · official $384.52 (match) · 3500 history records