Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:07:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x77fc…432b sports 299 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$317 (-7%) realized −$306 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%104W / 186L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day38.3pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$147now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$152
7 days−$410
14 days−$410
30 days−$410
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$143
other 25% −$239
crypto 2% −$23
world 1% −$5
weather 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 288 -12.5% -20.8% 36% 35% -17.2%
≤30d 290 -12.1% -20.5% 36% 36% -17.1%
≤90d 290 -12.1% -20.5% 36% 36% -17.1%
all 290 -12.1% -20.5% 36% 36% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.5% 36% -17.1%
10% ← realistic here -28.1% 34% -25.1%
15% -35.0% 29% -32.3%
20% -41.4% 24% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$10 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$147
Realized−$306
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses104 / 186
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions9
Markets (closed)290 / 299
History coverage14d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day38.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 290 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 97¢ $35 $51 +$16 (+44%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 65¢ 43¢ $40 $26 −$14 (-34%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 100¢ $15 $19 +$4 (+30%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 50¢ 26¢ $27 $14 −$13 (-47%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Yes 15¢ 24¢ $8 $13 +$5 (+63%)
Japan to win the second half? Yes 55¢ 54¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-3%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 45¢ 42¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 40¢ 16¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-61%)
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $4 −$1 -14%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $14 −$10 -74%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $3 −$3 -94%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $26 −$2 -6%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $6 $0 -4%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $32 +$19 +59%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $2 $0 -13%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $4 −$2 -61%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $16 −$5 -32%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $20 −$15 -74%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $16 −$12 -74%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $7 $0 -4%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $16 −$16 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $6 −$4 -59%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $26 −$14 -52%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $28 −$19 -69%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $9 +$6 +70%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $12 +$7 +54%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $25 +$8 +32%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $28 −$6 -21%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $3 +$2 +66%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $18 +$12 +64%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$9 +31%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -97%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $12 −$7 -58%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 −$14 -92%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $45 −$27 -58%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $25 −$9 -37%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $50 −$40 -80%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$8 -80%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $13 +$8 +60%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $12 +$9 +70%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $15 +$6 +38%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $19 +$11 +60%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $30 +$10 +34%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $18 −$9 -49%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 −$15 -58%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $11 −$11 -99%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $30 −$16 -54%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $13 −$5 -41%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $10 +$15 +146%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $27 +$24 +86%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $147 −$38 -26%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $66 +$36 +55%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $38 −$12 -32%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $32 +$14 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Japan to win the second half? SELL Yes 51¢ $11 0m
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 0m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 15¢ $4 34m
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 2¢ $0 34m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 40¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $27 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $40 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Under 70¢ $25 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL No 56¢ $6 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 73¢ $26 2h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $51 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 3h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 47¢ $11 3h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Under 16¢ $5 3h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 3h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 SELL Over 20¢ $4 3h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 60¢ $20 4h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 68¢ $16 4h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $6 6h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 6h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 6h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 SELL Over 56¢ $7 6h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $7 6h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $14 6h
Japan to win the second half? BUY Yes 55¢ $12 6h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $3 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $35 6h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $146.95 · official $143.60 · 649 history records