Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:25:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
77 0x77fe…c799 world 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 532d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-1%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate32%13W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$3
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% −$5
other 28% +$2
politics 18% +$5
sports 17% −$13
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -3.3% -12.5% 0% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 22 -3.5% -12.7% 23% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 33 -2.4% -11.7% 30% 0% -9.6%
all 41 -7.3% -16.2% 32% 5% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 5% -10.0%
10% -24.2% 5% -18.6%
15% -31.5% 5% -26.5%
20% -38.2% 5% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

532d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses13 / 28
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)41 / 43
History coverage532d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 95¢ 95¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $4 −$1 -15%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $30 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $29 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $4 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $27 $0 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $54 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $59 −$3 -5%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $26 +$1 +4%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $4 $0 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $31 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $26 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $27 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $2 −$1 -36%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $83 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $46 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 01 $27 $0 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 30 $55 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $83 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $32 −$6 -17%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $32 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $34 −$1 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $36 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $34 +$2 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $28 +$3 +10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $91 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $359 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $16 −$3 -19%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $52 +$3 +5%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $104 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $399 +$4 +1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $17 $0 -2%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $7 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $267 $0 -0%
Army vs. Navy Feb 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Tennessee Tech vs. Little Rock Feb 14 $6 +$6 +100%
Tennessee vs. Kentucky Feb 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Dave Portnoy sell any $jailstool by Monday? Feb 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Juventus vs. PSV Eindhoven end in a draw? Feb 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will Anderlecht beat Hoffenheim? Feb 05 $6 +$5 +72%
Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? Jan 25 $3 $0 +6%
Will Jeremiah Smith score a touchdown AND Quinn Ewers NOT throw an int Jan 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $29 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 9h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 11h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $30 12h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $30 14h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 90¢ $29 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 90¢ $29 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 5d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 5d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 5d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $1 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $25 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $27 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $21 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $6 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $27 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $22 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $5 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $27 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $27 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $28 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $28 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $26 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.58 · official $28.56 (match) · 157 history records