Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:11:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
78 0x7806…b302 other 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 595d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$161 (-9%) realized −$130 · open −$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%2W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$157now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$468
7 days+$275
14 days+$275
30 days+$275
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% +$98
politics 11% −$114
sports 2% +$131
crypto 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +98.4% +79.5% 40% 40% +63.3%
≤30d 5 +98.4% +79.5% 40% 40% +63.3%
≤90d 5 +98.4% +79.5% 40% 40% +63.3%
all 12 -11.6% -20.0% 17% 17% +12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 17% +12.8%
10% -27.7% 17% +2.0%
15% -34.7% 17% -7.9%
20% -41.1% 17% -16.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +80% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +25% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late +77% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$244 vs −$35 · ×6.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

595d coverage
Net worth$157
Realized−$130
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses2 / 10
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)12 / 18
History coverage595d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 37¢ 37¢ $80 $81 +$1 (+1%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+10%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $60 $30 −$30 (-50%)
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? No 66¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+51%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 66¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $98 +$356 +365%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$131 +427%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $44 −$43 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Trump say "Border" 20 or more times during Georgia rally on Octob Oct 29 $110 −$34 -31%
Will Trump say "Kamala" 20 or more times during Georgia rally on Octob Oct 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump say "Tariff" during Georgia rally on October 28? Oct 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "No income tax" during Georgia rally on October 28? Oct 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Elon" during Georgia rally on October 28? Oct 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Georgia rally on October 2 Oct 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Rodri win the Ballon d’Or? Oct 28 $14 −$14 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $516 8m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 66¢ $345 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 34¢ $311 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $623 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 65¢ $41 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $454 3h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $162 3h
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $8 3h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 3h
Will Paraguay be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY No 37¢ $82 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 63¢ $40 3h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 21¢ $98 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 55¢ $44 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $153 3d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $31 10d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $62 10d
Will Trump say "Border" 20 or more times during Georgia rally on Octob SELL No 3¢ $76 594d
Will Trump say "Border" 20 or more times during Georgia rally on Octob BUY No 4¢ $50 594d
Will Trump say "Border" 20 or more times during Georgia rally on Octob BUY No 4¢ $40 594d
Will Trump say "Border" 20 or more times during Georgia rally on Octob BUY No 3¢ $10 594d
Will Trump say "Kamala" 20 or more times during Georgia rally on Octob BUY No 15¢ $40 594d
Will Trump say "Kamala" 20 or more times during Georgia rally on Octob BUY No 19¢ $10 594d
Will Trump say "Tariff" during Georgia rally on October 28? BUY No 8¢ $10 594d
Will Trump say "Border" 20 or more times during Georgia rally on Octob BUY No 22¢ $10 594d
Will Trump say "No income tax" during Georgia rally on October 28? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 594d
Will Trump say "Elon" during Georgia rally on October 28? BUY No 18¢ $10 594d
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during Georgia rally on October 2 BUY Yes 6¢ $10 594d
Will Rodri win the Ballon d’Or? BUY No 5¢ $14 595d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $156.72 · official $156.47 (match) · 40 history records