Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:22:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x780c…3113 world 88 markets active 1h ago coverage 469d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$27 (-0%) realized −$27 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate36%32W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$5
14 days+$2
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% −$29
other 24% +$1
politics 2% −$5
finance 2% +$1
sports 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
weather 1% $0
culture 0% +$5
economics 0% $0
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.4% -9.9% 12% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 26 -1.0% -10.4% 35% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 29 -0.9% -10.3% 31% 0% -9.8%
all 88 -4.1% -13.3% 36% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 3% -9.8%
10% -21.6% 1% -18.5%
15% -29.2% 1% -26.4%
20% -36.1% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

469d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses32 / 56
Open positions0
Markets (closed)88 / 88
History coverage469d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 88 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $39 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $72 −$6 -9%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 11 $161 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $22 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $141 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $25 −$1 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $145 +$11 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $241 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $266 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $129 −$3 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $33 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $61 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $284 +$1 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $184 −$1 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 30 $132 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $281 +$1 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 29 $1,277 +$11 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $143 +$1 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $205 −$6 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $132 +$4 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $199 −$34 -17%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $7 −$1 -8%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $141 +$5 +4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $163 −$2 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $30 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 14 $17 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 11 $1,148 −$1 -0%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 11 $946 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 18 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will courts block Trump's tariffs before June? May 30 $6 −$6 -100%
Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.05ºC in May 2025? May 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will Tyrese Haliburton Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? May 28 $6 $0 -4%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? May 27 $23 $0 -0%
Will Kwon Yeong-guk win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential ele May 27 $5 $0 +2%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June? May 27 $1 $0 +12%
Will MicroStrategy hold 600k+ BTC before June? May 26 $7 $0 +2%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? May 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 23 $1 $0 -40%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? May 21 $13 $0 -1%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? May 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese leg May 20 $5 $0 +5%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? May 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? May 18 $8 $0 +0%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July? May 18 $4 $0 -8%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? May 16 $8 $0 -2%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 15 $1 −$1 -62%
Will Lee Jae-myung win more than 65% of the vote in the South Korea el May 15 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $3 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $146 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $150 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $39 44h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $39 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 21¢ $66 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 23¢ $38 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 23¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 23¢ $32 2d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $58 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $83 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $142 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 45¢ $22 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 45¢ $22 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $141 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $141 4d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes $24 5d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $16 5d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 41¢ $63 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 41¢ $93 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 38¢ $145 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $22 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $69 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $36 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $55 7d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $70 7d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $61 7d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $131 8d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $122 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 285 history records