Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:01:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x780c…b2db crypto 321 markets active 0h ago coverage 29d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 29d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,886 (-154%) realized −$6,886 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate48%154W / 167L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day24.9pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 29d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$305
other 15% −$99
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 240 -42.2% -47.7% 32% 28% -30.5%
≤30d 321 -4.1% -13.3% 48% 45% -17.7%
≤90d 321 -4.1% -13.3% 48% 45% -17.7%
all 321 -4.1% -13.3% 48% 45% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.3% 45% -17.7%
10% ← realistic here -21.6% 43% -25.6%
15% -29.1% 42% -32.8%
20% -36.1% 42% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +82% → late -90% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$10 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6,886
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses154 / 167
Open positions0
Markets (closed)321 / 321
History coverage29d ⚠
Avg bet$14
Trades / day24.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 321 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 26 $153 +$7 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 26 $140 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 26 $144 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 26 $143 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 26 $118 +$25 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 26 $105 +$14 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 26 $102 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 26 $95 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 26 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 26 $131 +$22 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 26 $102 +$29 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 26 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 26 $61 +$15 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 26 $30 +$4 +14%
BNB Up or Down - June 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 10AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 30, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 30, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 1, 10AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 22, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 22, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 26 $8 +$2 +20%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 22, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 22, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $151 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $140 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $144 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $143 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $118 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $105 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $102 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $95 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $101 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $31 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $159.88 · 3500 history records