Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:22:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x780d…f0d9 politics 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 310d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate30%14W / 33L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 31% +$2
other 25% $0
politics 23% $0
crypto 11% $0
sports 5% $0
weather 4% +$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +5.5% -4.6% 43% 14% -8.9%
≤30d 12 +3.0% -6.8% 42% 8% -9.1%
≤90d 12 +3.0% -6.8% 42% 8% -9.1%
all 47 +0.9% -8.7% 30% 2% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 2% -9.3%
10% -17.5% 2% -18.0%
15% -25.4% 2% -25.9%
20% -32.8% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.23 per $1 lost it wins $2.23
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

310d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses14 / 33
Open positions2
Markets (closed)47 / 49
History coverage310d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 47¢ 47¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+0%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $46 −$1 -2%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $46 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $46 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $8 +$3 +41%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 11 $49 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $47 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $15 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $2 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $97 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $4 $0 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $49 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in August? Aug 18 $2 $0 -1%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 18 $52 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31? Aug 18 $6 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 17 $39 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Aug 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 500–524 times August 15–August 22? Aug 17 $43 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 17 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Aug 17 $46 $0 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 17 $56 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 16 $53 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Aug 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 16 $6 $0 +2%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 16 $52 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Aug 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 16 $52 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Aug 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 15 $52 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in August? Aug 15 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 15 $47 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2025? Aug 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Aug 15 $51 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 15 $7 $0 +3%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Aug 14 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Aug 14 $2 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 91-92°F on August 12 Aug 14 $52 +$1 +1%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 14 $5 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2025? Aug 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will JD Vance say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" during his remarks to US troop Aug 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 12 $52 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $42 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $21 30h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 61¢ $31 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $50 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $46 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $46 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $46 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $46 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $2 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $42 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $46 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 24¢ $11 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 17¢ $8 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $11 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $49 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $44 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $44 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $15 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $15 9d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 29¢ $2 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $23 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $25 10d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $48 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.96 · official $41.83 (match) · 130 history records