Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:07:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x780e…a89e crypto 194 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (260 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,151 (+51%) realized +$3,151 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate34%65W / 129L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day260.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2,822
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (260 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 194 +9.9% -0.6% 34% 31% +31.9%
≤30d 194 +9.9% -0.6% 34% 31% +31.9%
≤90d 194 +9.9% -0.6% 34% 31% +31.9%
all 194 +9.9% -0.6% 34% 31% +31.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover260.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.6% 31% +31.9%
10% ← realistic here -10.1% 30% +19.3%
15% -18.8% 29% +7.8%
20% -26.8% 28% -2.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +46% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$18 · ×4.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.19 per $1 lost it wins $2.19
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,151
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses65 / 129
Open positions0
Markets (closed)194 / 194
History coverage6d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day260.2
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 194 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$43 +404%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $97 +$65 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $82 −$82 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $118 +$217 +184%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $110 +$158 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $37 +$29 +77%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $22 +$74 +337%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $28 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$20 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $92 +$107 +116%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$46 +655%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $42 +$194 +458%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $67 +$91 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $186 +$225 +121%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $22 +$39 +182%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $97 −$97 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$2 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$6 +30%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $29 −$29 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $59 −$12 -20%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$62 +307%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $42 +$152 +359%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $3 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $3 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $11 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $4 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $3 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $3 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $17 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 59m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $21 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $6 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $6 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $125 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $13 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1724 history records