Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:05:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x780f…91ff crypto 71 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$606 (-9%) realized −$611 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate49%34W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$918
7 days−$918
14 days−$918
30 days−$1,136
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,131
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-30.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -21.9% -29.4% 50% 45% -22.9%
≤30d 70 -22.7% -30.1% 49% 41% -25.0%
≤90d 70 -22.7% -30.1% 49% 41% -25.0%
all 70 -22.7% -30.1% 49% 41% -25.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.1% 41% -25.0%
10% -36.8% 36% -32.2%
15% -42.9% 26% -38.7%
20% -48.5% 16% -44.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$70 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$611
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses34 / 36
Open positions1
Markets (closed)70 / 71
History coverage26d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Down 80¢ 94¢ $29 $34 +$5 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 20 $133 +$43 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 20 $97 +$16 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 20 $76 −$73 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 20 $282 −$275 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $221 −$155 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 20 $181 +$40 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 20 $168 +$122 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $101 +$60 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 20 $71 +$22 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 20 $176 −$101 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 20 $104 +$40 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 20 $64 −$61 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 20 $305 +$120 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 20 $75 −$68 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $15 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 20 $62 −$62 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 20 $142 −$137 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 20 $45 +$18 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 20 $22 +$19 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 20 $24 −$20 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 20 $149 +$274 +184%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 20 $95 +$98 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $563 −$554 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 20 $172 +$31 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $34 −$32 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 20 $22 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 20 $836 −$221 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 20 $17 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 20 $316 +$28 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 20 $29 −$23 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 20 $123 −$17 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 20 $29 −$28 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 20 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 20 $102 +$61 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 20 $181 +$85 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 20 $80 −$79 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 20 $96 −$93 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 20 $390 +$142 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 20 $67 +$22 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 20 $115 −$110 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 20 $42 +$20 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 29 $12 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 29 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 28 $14 +$10 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 28 $12 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 28 $40 −$40 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 28 $16 −$16 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $29 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $13 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $21 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $111 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $97 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $14 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $18 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $42 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $159 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $81 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $43 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 21¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $221 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $80 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $78 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $75 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $70 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.02 · official $7.38 · 254 history records