Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:41:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
78 0x780f…5f16 other 154 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable P/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,323 (+4%) realized +$2,323 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate63%97W / 57L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$365per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$356est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 66d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$3,606
sports 42% +$2,728
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +19.9% +8.5% 58% 58% +17.1%
≤30d 40 +24.5% +12.6% 58% 58% +17.1%
≤90d 154 +7.1% -3.1% 63% 62% +0.7%
all 154 +7.1% -3.1% 63% 62% +0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.1% 62% +0.7%
10% -12.4% 49% -9.0%
15% -20.8% 39% -17.8%
20% -28.6% 33% -25.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$257 vs −$326 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,323
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses97 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$356
Open positions0
Markets (closed)154 / 154
History coverage66d
Avg bet$365
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 154 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5,705 +$3,439 +60%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $510 +$878 +172%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $500 −$500 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $1,000 +$998 +100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $1,000 +$998 +100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,016 −$1,016 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $450 −$450 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $500 +$499 +100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $205 −$205 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $609 +$612 +100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $500 −$500 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2,022 +$1,152 +57%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,017 +$1,255 +123%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $1,008 −$1,008 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,016 +$1,155 +114%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $400 −$400 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 16 $1,014 +$862 +85%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $405 −$405 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $144 −$144 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $405 +$256 +63%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,022 −$2,022 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1,011 +$585 +58%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $812 −$812 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $406 +$462 +114%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $407 +$481 +118%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $204 +$462 +226%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $203 +$161 +79%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $406 +$462 +114%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $205 −$205 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $406 −$406 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $814 +$1,089 +134%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $203 +$142 +70%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $405 −$405 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $405 −$405 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $407 +$644 +158%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $405 +$285 +70%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $204 +$351 +172%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $204 +$396 +194%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 12 $202 −$201 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $202 −$8 -4%
Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Henan FC: O/U 2.5 May 19 $182 −$182 -100%
AA Ponte Preta vs. Londrina EC: O/U 1.5 May 19 $204 −$204 -100%
Will FCV Farul Constanţa win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $202 −$188 -93%
CD Leganés vs. SD Huesca: O/U 2.5 May 18 $203 +$42 +21%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $993 −$993 -100%
Levante UD vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 2.5 May 18 $203 −$203 -100%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $404 −$404 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $506 −$506 -100%
SC Heerenveen vs. AFC Ajax: O/U 1.5 May 17 $202 −$202 -100%
Santos FC vs. Coritiba FBC: O/U 3.5 May 17 $202 −$202 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 100¢ $9,144 35m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,387 35m
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 60¢ $1,660 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 59¢ $2,025 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 36¢ $510 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 66¢ $2,020 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,998 3h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,998 3h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 50¢ $566 3h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 50¢ $100 3h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 50¢ $98 3h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 50¢ $180 3h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 50¢ $56 3h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $2 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $14 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $942 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $2 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $2 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $27 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $4 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $2 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $2 4h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 46¢ $1,016 17h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $39 20h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $25 20h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $17 20h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 20h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $134 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 411 history records